US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
638 signals across 18 markets · $2,866,829 tracked
This Polymarket event tracks whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or ceasefire extension by May 23. PolySpotter is monitoring the event’s prediction-market odds and smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a proven cross-market sharp.
Markets (18)
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?125 signals · $829,350 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?131 signals · $384,496 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?52 signals · $253,490 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?68 signals · $221,780 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1434 signals · $213,861 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?22 signals · $128,963 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?45 signals · $127,193 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?23 signals · $124,139 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?14 signals · $108,081 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?19 signals · $100,554 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?23 signals · $83,369 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?17 signals · $81,505 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?21 signals · $70,418 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?15 signals · $40,794 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?15 signals · $39,981 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?4 signals · $39,217 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?9 signals · $18,518 tracked
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?1 signal · $1,121 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Sharp cluster fading Yes surge
High-conviction No-side cluster is worth surfacing because it includes a very profitable 82% wallet and coordinated cross-market flow, though many Yes sells appear to be profit-taking and the market has since moved against them.
$43,300Score: 76.2 - Sharp cross-market No cluster
Surface this because a profitable 82% lifetime bettor and several active cross-market wallets are collectively positioning on No despite a very liquid, news-driven market.
$17,595Score: 45.6 - Cross-market Yes cluster
Four profitable or cross-market-active wallets are taking the Yes side on a geopolitical market, with $10.7k clustered around 20¢ despite recent bearish price action.
$10,679Score: 32.5 - Four-wallet geopolitical Yes cluster
Four wallets are aligned on Yes in a geopolitics market that has already moved sharply upward, with several traders showing broad cross-market positioning and positive lifetime P&L.
$12,170Score: 31.5 - Profitable cross-market cluster
Three profitable cross-market bettors are buying Yes together, led by a serial event trader with strong long-run results despite the market's recent pullback.
$6,108Score: 27.3 - 7-wallet sharp Yes surge
High-score coordinated Yes flow with a $30.9k 7-wallet cluster, sharp profitable wallets, volume spike, and a 15-point price move on an Iran ceasefire-extension market.
$30,870Score: 25.3 - Coordinated Yes momentum
Coordinated profitable wallets pushed into Yes amid a major price move and volume spike across related Iran markets.
$11,869Score: 23.3 - Coordinated Yes cluster
High-score coordinated Yes buying across six wallets, including a profitable 79% bettor and broader cross-market Iran positioning, makes this worth surfacing despite mixed wallet quality.
$8,663Score: 23.1 - 82% winner joins Yes cluster
Surface because a highly profitable 82% winner and other cross-market Iran-event bettors are collectively taking the Yes side despite the market drifting down.
$4,677Score: 23.1 - Sharp trio buying Yes
Three profitable cross-market bettors are effectively buying Yes against the market consensus by selling No at 87¢, with strong track records and coordinated timing.
$4,982Score: 22.1
Top wallets in this event
- 0xeed588…1a33$300,195 · 4 markets · 7 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$229,454 · 5 markets · 19 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$218,958 · 9 markets · 67 alerts · 72% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$185,654 · 11 markets · 91 alerts · 80% wins
- 0xf9c119…39e2$98,992 · 5 markets · 9 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x5188fa…c804$87,338 · 6 markets · 23 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xbd0477…fbb0$67,948 · 7 markets · 32 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x09a5d3…caaa$66,378 · 7 markets · 13 alerts · 86% wins
- 0xc8849a…e17e$60,864 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$59,740 · 5 markets · 5 alerts · 70% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension by May 23?
The live odds come from the event’s Yes/No prediction market on whether the U.S. makes a qualifying official announcement by 11:59 PM ET on May 23. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart-money activity.
What counts as a qualifying US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension?
The market resolves Yes if the U.S. officially announces a continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran, a new peace agreement, a ceasefire framework, or another diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire continues by the deadline.
Is smart money betting on this Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,235 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a proven cross-market sharp.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market is based on whether a qualifying U.S. announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on May 23. If no qualifying announcement is made by then, it resolves No.