US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
7 signals across 2 markets · $39,316 tracked
This Polymarket event tracks whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or ceasefire extension by May 23. PolySpotter is monitoring the event’s prediction-market odds and smart-money activity, including a recent signal from a proven cross-market sharp.
Markets (2)
Top trades across all markets
- 96% winner in Yes cluster
Strong one-sided Yes flow with a 5-wallet cluster, major price impact, and a serial cross-market trader with a 96% resolved win rate.
$17,094Score: 15.1 - Sharp cluster buying Yes
Four wallets, including a serial cross-market trader with a 96% historical hit rate, bought Yes into a 177x volume spike and moved the market sharply from the high teens to the low 40s.
$12,094Score: 12.7 - Profitable whale moved thin market
A profitable high-volume bettor bought $3.1k of Yes in a thin geopolitical market, moving the price up about 28 percentage points.
$3,116Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 5.2 - 75% serial cross-market winner
A proven serial cross-market trader with a 75% win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No, supported by a notable pre-event volume spike.
$1,308Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.2 - Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable cross-market bettor with a 75% record and $169k lifetime profit is buying No on a plausible geopolitics market.
$1,235Wallet win rate: 75%Score: 5.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader with $329k lifetime profit is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the individual bet size is modest.
$1,018Wallet win rate: 62%Score: 3.0 - Profitable cross-market bettor
Experienced profitable cross-market trader sold Yes, effectively buying No at 46¢, across a broader Iran-agreement thesis that has already moved in their favor.
$3,450Wallet win rate: 57%Score: 3.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x68c24b…1711$6,566 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 57% wins
- 0xa8c63f…44e8$2,544 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x6d9fc3…9790$1,018 · 1 market · 1 alert · 62% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran ceasefire extension by May 23?
The live odds come from the event’s Yes/No prediction market on whether the U.S. makes a qualifying official announcement by 11:59 PM ET on May 23. PolySpotter tracks those odds alongside smart-money activity.
What counts as a qualifying US-Iran agreement or ceasefire extension?
The market resolves Yes if the U.S. officially announces a continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran, a new peace agreement, a ceasefire framework, or another diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire continues by the deadline.
Is smart money betting on this Iran ceasefire market?
PolySpotter has tracked $1,235 in smart-money activity across this event, including a recent alert tied to a proven cross-market sharp.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
The market is based on whether a qualifying U.S. announcement is made by 11:59 PM ET on May 23. If no qualifying announcement is made by then, it resolves No.