Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $147,354.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Cross-market Yes buyer
High composite alert driven by a major cross-market Iran thesis and a 95.7x volume spike, despite this single trade being modest and the wallet’s overall record being weak.
- This wallet has built a much larger $310K position across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Market volume is running 95.7x above its historical average, showing unusual pre-deadline attention.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 45% over the week.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 15%
Sharp wallet buying NO
Surface despite the weak alert score because this wallet has a qualifying sharp track record: 83% wins on 12 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $1,722 lifetime.
- They are backing No at 83¢ on a high-volume politics market with No already gaining momentum.
- The wallet has been flagged 3 times before, suggesting a repeat pattern rather than a one-off bet.
$1,200 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
86% winner buying NO
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate and positive P&L is buying No on a geopolitics market, with a second related event-market position adding context.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $940 on $6,694 invested.
- They bought No at 81¢, backing the market’s recent move away from a U.S.–Iran agreement.
- This is part of a $2.4K cross-market position in the same event.
$1,187 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable 5-market thesis
Surface: a profitable wallet is re-entering No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis, alongside a major volume spike and strong No momentum.
- This profitable bettor wins 68% of resolved trades and is up $1.9k on $11.6k invested.
- They have built a $26k thesis across 5 related Iran markets, now re-entering No after a prior No position.
- Market flow supports the trade: volume is 11x normal and Yes has fallen 49% over the past week.
$2,598 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable wallet is building a broader correlated position across five related Iran-ceasefire markets, making this more than a one-off bet despite modest size.
- This bettor is up $88.7K lifetime and is positioning across 5 related markets.
- They have put about $26K into the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Buying Yes at 20¢ goes against a market that has fallen 49% this week, implying they see rebound value.
$2,084 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a positive long-term record is re-entering No while also positioning across related Iran-event markets.
- This bettor has won 68% of 272 resolved trades and is up about $40.7K lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets in this event, with $28.2K positioned in the same broader thesis.
- Buying No at 81¢ fits the market’s strong move away from Yes, which is down 12 points today.
$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Profitable serial event trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes-equivalent position across a broader Iran ceasefire event cluster despite the market selling off sharply.
- This bettor has traded 441 resolved markets with a 69% win rate and $72K in lifetime profit.
- They have placed $37.6K across 7 related markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 21¢ after Yes fell 48% over the past week.
$5,449 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a No position as part of a broader 7-market Iran-event thesis, with current market momentum strongly favoring No.
- This bettor has won 69% of 441 resolved trades and is up $72K lifetime.
- They have built a $34.5K position across 7 related markets in the same event.
- Buying No at 80¢ follows strong momentum, with Yes down 15 points today and 53.5 points this week.
$2,401 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
82% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% resolved win rate is expressing a Yes view via a No sell while actively trading across related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $543K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.4M deployed across 146 related markets.
- Selling No at 75¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 25¢, against a market that has recently fallen sharply.
$1,730 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
85% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 85% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L is buying No on a high-volume Iran ceasefire market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $4,056 lifetime.
- They are buying No at 77¢ as the market has moved sharply toward No over the past week.
- The market is highly liquid, so the signal is mainly the bettor’s proven track record rather than size.
$1,665 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
Top Holders
- 0xcdc5...afc9 — Yes, $2,400,000 (17% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Yes, $25,994 (49% win rate)
- 0xb9d2...fb68 — Yes, $24,146
- 0x557a...3d56 — Yes, $21,922 (81% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Yes, $21,723 (100% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $15,901 (67% win rate)
- 0xaacb...90cb — Yes, $10,002 (70% win rate)
- 0x48ee...008c — Yes, $7,800 (38% win rate)
- 0x70bc...0c87 — Yes, $7,782 (79% win rate)
- 0x88ae...809a — Yes, $7,027 (73% win rate)
