Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
This Polymarket asks whether the U.S. will officially announce a new Iran diplomatic agreement, peace framework, or ceasefire extension by June 7, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,219 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including sharp cross-market Iran and political bettor alerts. The market resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying official U.S. announcement commits to continuing the halt of direct military engagement with Iran; otherwise it resolves “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $162,305.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
86% winner buying No
A profitable 86% win-rate wallet is buying No on a liquid Iran ceasefire-extension market, making the wallet track record the main reason to surface despite the modest alert score.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $785 on $4,488 invested.
- They bought No at 81¢, aligning with a sharp move against Yes over the past day and week.
- The market is liquid, so this looks less like noise and more like a tracked bettor backing the current momentum.
$1,787 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable 76% lifetime bettor is expressing a pro-Yes view across five related Iran ceasefire markets, including this Sell No trade equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $34K lifetime.
- They have put $25K across five related markets in the same Iran ceasefire event.
- Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, a contrarian entry after Yes fell 36% this week.
$2,219 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Serial cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a positive long-term record is adding a No position as part of a $31.7k thesis across seven related Iran agreement markets.
- This bettor has won 69% of 440 resolved trades and is up about $49k lifetime.
- They have put $31.7k across seven related markets, suggesting a broader No thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 80¢ lines up with market momentum, with Yes odds down sharply over the past week.
$3,676 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
96% winner buying No
Surfaced because a 22-1 profitable wallet with a strong resolved-bet record is buying No on a geopolitics market despite the alert's low composite score.
- This bettor has won 22 of 23 resolved trades and is up $1,352 lifetime.
- They bought No at 78¢, in line with a sharp move against Yes over the past week.
- The market is highly active, so the signal is the bettor’s track record rather than bet size.
$1,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable 76% winner is taking a cross-market No position across five related Iran ceasefire markets, making this a copy-worthy directional thesis.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $34,274 lifetime.
- They have put $25,910 across 5 related markets, showing a broader No-side thesis.
- The market has moved toward No recently, with Yes down 9 points today and 34 points this week.
$2,824 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% serial cross-market winner
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 75% record is adding a No position across a broader Iran-ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,225 resolved trades and is up $174k lifetime.
- They are active across 5 related markets in this event, with $25k positioned on the same broader thesis.
- Buying No at 76¢ follows strong market momentum, with Yes down 24.5 points over the past week.
$1,135 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%
Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable 75% lifetime wallet is extending a $25.5k cross-market Iran thesis by buying No at 75¢ despite already-liquid market conditions.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $31k lifetime.
- They have placed $25.5k across 5 related Iran markets, showing a coordinated thesis.
- Buying No at 75¢ aligns with the market’s recent move, with Yes down 23 points this week.
$2,436 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is making a cross-market Iran ceasefire bet on No, with a long history of positive returns across many events.
- This bettor is up $211k lifetime across more than 1,500 resolved markets.
- They have traded 368 markets across 163 events, showing a repeat cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 76¢ aligns with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 24 points over the past week.
$1,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% record is adding a cross-market No position aligned with strong recent market momentum against a ceasefire/agreement announcement.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $31K lifetime.
- They are backing the same Iran-event thesis across multiple related markets, with over $36K in correlated positions flagged.
- The market has moved sharply toward No, with Yes down 13 points today and 27 points this week.
$3,728 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable 73% wallet is expressing a cross-market thesis with $36k across three related Iran-ceasefire markets, adding $5k to No as prices move that direction.
- This bettor has won 73% of 62 resolved trades and is up $48k lifetime.
- They have placed $36k across 3 related markets, showing a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market has already moved toward No, with Yes down 13 points in the past day.
$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%
Top Holders
- 0xe541...d45d — Yes, $67,000 (45% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $25,332 (82% win rate)
- 0xbf4d...33ed — No, $24,926 (76% win rate)
- 0x4a41...242a — Yes, $22,994 (49% win rate)
- 0xc884...e17e — Yes, $21,723 (100% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $20,705 (72% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $19,627 (62% win rate)
- 0x09a5...caaa — No, $14,840 (86% win rate)
- 0xbe97...6347 — Yes, $12,296 (84% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $11,323 (47% win rate)
