Part of: Maine Senate Election Winner
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the Republican nominee will win the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election, including any runoff if one occurs. PolySpotter is tracking $6,595 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent alerts from a high-performing wallet cluster and a politics bettor buying NO.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Maine U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,595.
Categories: US Election, Politics, Midterms, Elections, Senate midterms, Maine Midterm
Notable Trades
85% winner in 18-wallet cluster
Strong surface candidate: an 85% lifetime winner with $1.29M profit is buying No, alongside an 18-wallet funded cluster and heavy cross-market political activity.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.29M lifetime.
- 18 wallets funded by the same source are positioned on this event, totaling $14.6K.
- They bought No at 68¢, below the current 70¢ odds, on a liquid 2026 Senate market.
$2,275 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Serial politics bettor buys NO
A high-volume serial political trader with a profitable record bought $4.3k of No in a quiet Maine Senate market, more than 2x the market’s 24h volume.
- This bettor has traded across 62 markets and is up about $42k overall.
- The $4.3k buy was more than double this market’s 24h volume, showing outsized conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 72¢ suggests they see Republicans losing Maine as underpriced despite the market already favoring No.
$4,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $61,883
- 0x5e38...a1db — Yes, $13,822
- 0x1997...2e36 — No, $13,272 (71% win rate)
- 0x38e5...95e7 — Yes, $11,800 (78% win rate)
- 0xee17...6ea1 — Yes, $9,979 (30% win rate)
- 0x011f...1122 — Yes, $9,823 (39% win rate)
- 0x3f3b...1d77 — Yes, $8,867 (48% win rate)
- 0xd459...13f9 — Yes, $6,500 (69% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $6,000 (70% win rate)
- 0xcbdf...6a49 — Yes, $5,629
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