Part of: Peru Presidential Election Winner
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $207,013.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, World Elections, Elections, Peru, Peru Election, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market political bettor
A profitable political bettor is making a cross-market Peru election play, buying a beaten-down longshot at 6¢ after over $111k in related event positioning.
- This bettor is up $142k lifetime and has won 5 of 6 resolved bets.
- They have $111k in related Peru election positioning across 2 markets.
- Entry at 6¢ comes after a sharp price drop, giving longshot upside if their thesis is right.
$1,996 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp bettor buying rebound
Sharp positive-P&L wallet bought Sánchez at 14¢ despite only a modest single win-rate signal.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $22k lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 14¢ after a steep 51% one-day drop, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone.
- Entry at 14¢ implies a high-upside political bet from a proven wallet.
$1,476 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp trader flips to No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is buying No after large cross-market Peruvian election positioning and a sharp same-day price drop.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $103k lifetime.
- They have placed $184k across 3 markets in this election event, suggesting a broader Peru thesis.
- They bought No at 86¢ after the candidate's Yes price fell sharply today.
$2,660 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp cross-market election bettor
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate and six-figure profit is taking a cross-market Peru election position, with recent No buys aligning with the market’s sharp move against Yes.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $103k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 markets in the same Peruvian election event with $28k deployed.
- Recent buys favored No around 85–86¢ as Yes fell 33% over the past day.
$24,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp cross-market election bettor
Sharp profitable wallet with an 86% resolved-bet record is making large cross-market Peru election trades amid a major volume spike, though the opposing same-market legs make the direction less clean.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $103K lifetime.
- They have $25.7K spread across 3 related Peru election markets, suggesting a broader election thesis.
- Market volume spiked 15.5x while the price moved sharply, so this trade is part of a major repricing.
$21,779 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable funded cluster
A repeatedly flagged, profitable newer wallet from a 3-wallet funded cluster bought No on a high-volume Peruvian election market with recent price momentum in the same direction.
- This newer bettor is 5-for-5 on resolved trades and up $13.9K so far.
- Three wallets sharing the same funder are positioned on this market, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- The trade backs the recent move: Sánchez Palomino’s Yes odds are down about 10 points in 24 hours.
$2,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable cross-market whale
Profitable high-volume cross-market bettor is putting $15k on No, aligned with recent negative momentum for Sánchez Palomino.
- This bettor is up $887k across 1,339 resolved trades.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $6.8M bet across 105 events.
- The $15k No buy follows a 10.5-point weekly drop in Sánchez Palomino’s odds.
$15,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable serial election bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with a 68% long-run win rate is building a broader anti-Sánchez Palomino position across the Peruvian election markets.
- This bettor has won 68% of 683 resolved bets and is up about $293k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 markets in this same election event, with about $38.9k positioned overall.
- Buying No at 87¢ follows a sharp 25-point drop in the Yes price over the past day.
$2,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
76% winner cross-market
Surfacing because a profitable 76% lifetime winner is taking a cross-market No position, despite the alert being only moderate strength.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime.
- They have put $7.1K across two related election markets, including $3.0K on No here.
- The market has moved sharply against Sánchez in the last day, supporting the No direction.
$2,982 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable serial election trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader with 683 resolved bets is adding a high-confidence No position as part of a larger Peru election thesis.
- This bettor is up $292,726 lifetime across 683 resolved bets.
- They have traded 153 markets across 88 events, showing a repeated cross-market strategy.
- They have put $30,278 across 3 markets in this same election, including this No buy at 90¢.
$1,845 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $3,951,697
- 0x35b3...3dc7 — Yes, $273,146 (75% win rate)
- 0x70dd...dcc3 — Yes, $110,857
- 0xafba...e61b — Yes, $102,514 (70% win rate)
- 0x8718...d6dd — Yes, $99,377
- 0x469c...35ec — Yes, $86,449
- 0x9d89...a5f4 — Yes, $76,901
- 0x9496...f0e2 — Yes, $57,445
- 0x93fb...3e4a — Yes, $50,046 (43% win rate)
- 0x782d...df02 — Yes, $47,310 (60% win rate)
Related Theses
Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency
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Iran deal timing arbitrage
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Peru elects right-wing president
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Neither Chong nor Oh wins
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