Part of: US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran will sign any qualifying written agreement by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. It resolves “Yes” only if authorized representatives from both governments sign the same document or matching documents indicating acceptance of the same agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $13,150 in smart money activity across 2 signals, including recent Yes buying from high-win and proven cross-market traders.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $32,114.
Categories: Iran, Treaty, U.S. x Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate is re-entering Yes with $8.75k amid a major volume spike and sharp upward price move.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $240k lifetime.
- They have traded 52 related events with about $599k deployed, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- They bought $8.75k of Yes as volume spiked over 260x and the market rose 21 points in a day.
$8,750 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes into a major volume spike and strong upward price move on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has traded 287 resolved markets with a 63% win rate and is up $127K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 29 events with $175K in similar event bets tracked.
- Market activity surged 269x above its recent average, while Yes has jumped 21 points in the past day.
$4,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
98% winner buying Yes
Surfacing because this is an exceptionally proven cross-market trader with a 98% resolved win rate buying Yes amid a major volume and price surge.
- This bettor has won 98% of 1,547 resolved trades and is up $37,442 lifetime.
- They have traded across 533 markets with over $3.0M in total volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- The market saw a 58x volume spike and Yes is up 17.5 points in 24 hours.
$4,394 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 98%
Proven cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% long-run win rate bought Yes during a major volume and price surge.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades across 1,093 markets and is up $179,818 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.77M deployed across 178 events.
- The market is seeing a 58.5x volume spike and Yes is up 17.5 points in 24 hours.
$2,011 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial trader buying YES
Seasoned cross-market trader with positive lifetime P&L bought Yes into a sharp volume and price surge on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has 1,444 resolved trades and is up $97,740 lifetime.
- Market activity spiked 58x while Yes jumped 17.5 points in the past day.
- They bought Yes at 88¢, signaling confidence despite already-high odds.
$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
High-win serial traders cluster
Three wallets bought Yes together after a major volume spike, including two high-win serial cross-market traders with positive lifetime P&L.
- Two serial cross-market bettors joined this move, including one with a 98% record and another up $179k lifetime.
- Three wallets bought $10.8k of Yes at 88¢ in the same two-minute window.
- The market has surged 17.5 points today with a huge volume spike, suggesting momentum behind the Yes side.
$10,799 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x5739...5f1a — Outcome 47954820, $102,466 (55% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — Outcome 47954820, $43,063 (67% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 47954820, $14,808
- 0xd52b...5c72 — Outcome 47954820, $8,927 (54% win rate)
- 0x0354...2913 — Outcome 47954820, $5,000 (54% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 47954820, $3,317 (71% win rate)
- 0x215a...254c — Outcome 47954820, $3,141
- 0x56f3...6513 — Outcome 47954820, $1,602
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 47954820, $1,366
- 0x13d1...5c3c — Outcome 47954820, $1,000
Related Theses
Iran leadership changes by December
Covers 6 related markets
Iran peace deal comes early
Covers 11 related markets
Starmer stays through June
Covers 4 related markets