Part of: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

This prediction market asks whether Russia and Ukraine will reach a mutually agreed ceasefire by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves Yes if both countries officially announce or credible reporting confirms a ceasefire agreement; otherwise, it resolves No. The market currently has one tracked smart money signal showing a Yes consensus, while live odds may change.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $48,862.

Categories: Politics, Russia, Ukraine Peace Deal, Geopolitics, putin, zelensky, zelenskyy, Ukraine, Trump

Notable Trades

Bettor scaling into No on volume spike

A $10.5K addition to an existing No position drove a sharp volume spike in a quiet market, despite the wallet having no proven track-record edge.

  • A $10,488 buy adds to this bettor’s existing No position at 65¢.
  • The trade was over 10 times the market’s recent 24-hour volume and coincided with a 214.9× spike versus historical activity.
  • The wallet is 4–4 on resolved bets, so its record offers little evidence of a proven edge.

$10,488 on No | Wallet win rate: 50%

Bettor adding to sizable No position

A sizable No buy drove an unusually large volume spike in a normally quiet market, with the bettor adding to an existing position.

  • A $6,983 No buy was about seven times the market’s entire 24-hour volume.
  • The trade coincided with a 215× spike over historical volume, suggesting a notable burst of conviction.
  • The bettor already held a sizable No position and has won 8 of 9 resolved bets, though that track record is still a small sample.

$6,983 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

86% winner buying ceasefire odds

A proven bettor with an 86% win rate and positive edge is taking a $1,014 position equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢.

  • This bettor has won 43 of 50 resolved trades and is up $1,288.
  • Their $1,014 sale of No at 69¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 31¢, near the current 30¢ odds.

$1,014 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Seven-wallet funded No cluster

Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with about $5,059 of No activity, and the trading wallet has a profitable 251-bet history, though its average winning entry price suggests limited odds-adjusted edge.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with about $5,059 of activity on No.
  • The trading wallet has won 65% of 251 resolved bets and is up $126,148 lifetime.
  • It bought No between 67¢ and 84¢; the current No price is about 66¢, so some entries are already underwater.

$5,059 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Three-wallet coordinated Yes position

Three wallets coordinated $25.3K in equivalent Yes exposure amid a 245.7x volume spike, making this a notable directional signal despite limited track records.

  • Three wallets put a combined $25.3K behind a ceasefire by the deadline, selling No at 65¢—equivalent to buying Yes at 35¢.
  • Trading volume was 245.7 times its historical average, though the spike came from just four trades.
  • The wallets have limited histories; their records provide little independent evidence of a proven edge.

$25,317 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xc550...272d — No, $14,498 (75% win rate)
  2. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $10,278 (53% win rate)
  3. 0x6fc7...43a1 — No, $5,024
  4. 0x32b4...7f09 — No, $5,014 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x9419...a40f — Yes, $4,381 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xd44e...67e2 — No, $3,967 (60% win rate)
  7. 0x97ea...3363 — Yes, $3,054 (71% win rate)
  8. 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $2,894 (45% win rate)
  9. 0x35dd...75f3 — Yes, $2,059 (75% win rate)
  10. 0xd426...334a — Yes, $2,010 (51% win rate)

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Flávio Bolsonaro wins, Lula loses

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?$48,862 tracked5 signalsPoliticsRussiaUkraine Peace DealGeopoliticsputinzelenskyzelenskyyUkraineTrump
Yes
34¢
No
67¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No”
68¢
65¢
62¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

2026-10-28 02:48 UTC

$10,488 on No at 65¢

65¢→67¢↑2¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

2026-10-28 02:48 UTC

$6,983 on No at 65¢

65¢→67¢↑2¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

2026-10-20 13:59 UTC

$1,014 on Yes at 31¢

31¢→34¢↑3¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

2026-09-30 09:55 UTC

$5,059 on No at 80¢

80¢→67¢↓13¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?

2026-10-28 06:43 UTC

$25,317 on Yes at 35¢

35¢→34¢↓1¢

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