Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $9,400.

Categories: World, Germany, Politics, Elections, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scaling into No

A highly profitable, serial cross-market bettor with an 82% win rate made a concentrated No position while volume surged and the price moved sharply in their favor.

  • This bettor wins 82% of 393 resolved trades and has earned $615,294 overall.
  • They invested $9,400 into No across two purchases, adding after the price rose from 68¢ to 86¢.
  • The market saw a major volume spike, while this trader’s serial activity spans 32 events and 78 markets.

$9,400 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0x23d8...0288 Outcome 13233098, $39,686 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 16635805, $26,248
  3. 0x2200...0f2d Outcome 13233098, $20,699 (32% win rate)
  4. 0x9592...a85b Outcome 13233098, $6,241
  5. 0xb77e...c2c1 Outcome 13233098, $2,499
  6. 0xd24b...ef76 Outcome 13233098, $1,832 (74% win rate)
  7. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 13233098, $1,555 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x449f...913b Outcome 13233098, $1,213 (61% win rate)
  9. 0xfd59...0231 Outcome 13233098, $818
  10. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 13233098, $687

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Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?

ResolvedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?$9,400 tracked1 signalWorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsSaxony-AnhaltSachsen-AnhaltWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Price History — “No
102¢
91¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?

5d ago

$9,400 on No at 86¢

Related Theses