What does this Iran leadership change prediction market measure?

It measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei stops being the de facto leader of Iran before December 31, 2026. A Yes outcome requires that he be removed, detained, lose his position, or otherwise be prevented from acting as the country’s de facto leader within the market timeframe.

When does the Iran leadership change market resolve?

The market resolves based on events that happen between market creation and December 31, 2026, using the listed market rules and timing. If no qualifying leadership change occurs by then, the market resolves to No.

What counts as a Yes outcome in this Polymarket?

Yes resolves if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point during the market window. That can include removal from power, detention, loss of authority, or being unable to function as the de facto leader, as defined by the market rules.

What should traders watch in this market?

Traders typically watch official Iranian announcements, credible reporting on elite power shifts, detention or removal rumors, succession developments, and broader regime instability. Because the market is tied to de facto leadership rather than just titles, real control of power is especially important.

Is there smart money activity on this Iran Polymarket?

Yes. PolySpotter tracks smart money positioning on this market, with $9,390 in tracked smart money and one recent signal, alongside alert headlines highlighting geopolitical and cross-market traders.

Iran leadership change by December 31?

This Polymarket tracks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if he is removed from power, detained, or otherwise prevented from acting as Iran’s de facto leader during the market window; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter also tracks smart money activity on this market, including recent signals from geopolitical and cross-market traders.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $29,042.

Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out

Notable Trades

Profitable trader doubles down

A profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is making a fresh $9.4k bet on No and has been building a related thesis across two markets in the same event.

This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up about $4.9k overall
They just put $9.4k on No at 71¢, a sizable bet with clear conviction
They are betting across 2 related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt

$9,390 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

86% win-rate geopolitical bettor

A proven high-win-rate bettor put nearly $17k into Yes as part of a $64k cross-market thesis during an extreme volume spike and breakout move in a major geopolitics market.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $111k lifetime.
They put $64k across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Market activity exploded to 373x normal volume and Yes broke above its prior range, showing strong conviction around this event.

$16,902 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

Sharp cross-market thesis trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 73% win rate is flipping exposure on this Iran leadership market by selling No, which translates to a fresh bullish Yes view around 37¢.

This bettor has won 673 of 919 resolved trades and is up about $119k lifetime
They trade across related markets at scale — 191 markets across 107 events with a 73% win rate
Selling No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 37¢, a meaningful directional bet after previously closing an older No position

$2,751 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%