Part of: Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by December 31?
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point before December 31, 2026. A “Yes” outcome includes removal, detention, loss of power, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader; the market resolves on January 1, 2027, and currently has $10,080 in tracked smart-money activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
42 smart money signals detected, totaling $207,092.
Categories: Mojtaba, ayatollah, Politics, Iran Regime, Geopolitics, Iran, Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei out, Mojtaba out
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader backs No
A highly experienced, profitable serial cross-market trader with a strong win rate placed a meaningful $10,080 bet on No across a four-market Iran leadership thesis.
- This bettor has won 76% of 356 resolved trades and earned nearly $949,000 in profit.
- They placed $10,080 on No and are positioned across four markets tied to the same event.
- The 84¢ entry implies the trader sees roughly an 84% or greater chance that leadership does not change by the deadline.
$10,080 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven bettor scales into No
A proven serial trader with an 83% win rate is adding $15,120 to an existing No position at 84%, a substantial bet relative to recent market activity.
- This bettor has won 83% of 53 resolved trades and is up $143,085.
- They added $15,120 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to $33,120.
- The purchase was large relative to the market’s recent activity, signaling increased conviction that leadership change will not occur.
$15,120 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Sharp bettor scaling into No
A proven bettor with an 87% win rate and substantial positive edge is adding to an existing No position at 77%.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades, with $32,463 in realized profit across 79 positions.
- They are adding roughly $2,071 to an existing No position at 77%, reinforcing the view that leadership change is unlikely.
- The market still runs through December 2026, so this is a meaningful long-term conviction bet rather than a last-minute trade.
$2,071 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Profitable bettor scaling into No
A highly profitable long-term trader is adding to an existing No position amid an extreme pre-event volume spike, though the wallet's win rate does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge.
- This bettor is up $266,829 across more than 1,100 resolved trades and is adding to an existing No position.
- The market saw a 423.9x spike versus its historical trading activity, suggesting unusually strong interest in the leadership-change question.
- The No purchase was made at 74¢, implying the trader sees roughly 74% odds that leadership does not change by the deadline.
$1,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%
Serial trader scales into No
A serial cross-market trader added roughly $18.6K to an existing No position during an extreme volume spike, despite only a moderate historical win rate.
- Added about $18.6K to No at 82–83¢, increasing an already $58.8K position.
- The market saw a 758x spike versus its historical trading activity, suggesting unusually concentrated interest.
- This wallet has traded across 204 markets and 110 events, with $310.6K in lifetime profit, though its 60% win rate is not elite.
$20,854 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Profitable bettor scales into No
A profitable bettor is adding another $19,300 to an existing No position in a relatively quiet market, though the limited seven-bet track record makes this a moderate-strength signal.
- This bettor has won 71% of seven resolved trades and is up $32,359 overall.
- They added $19,300 to an existing No position, representing 86% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
- The No position was bought at 80¢, with a moderate copy ceiling of 90¢.
$19,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%
82% winner cross-market thesis
Surface: an 82% win-rate wallet with positive P&L is adding a cross-market Iran leadership thesis, buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1,773 lifetime.
- They have placed $9,284 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing the status quo through year-end 2026.
$1,734 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp bettor fading change
Proven profitable wallet with 86% resolved win rate is adding a cross-market political thesis by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $162K lifetime.
- They have put $28.5K across 4 related markets, suggesting a broader political thesis.
- Selling Yes at 15¢ is equivalent to buying No at 85¢, backing no Iranian leadership change by year-end.
$1,753 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
82% winner cross-market thesis
Surface: an 82% win-rate wallet with positive P&L is adding a cross-market Iran leadership thesis, buying No at 85¢.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $1,773 lifetime.
- They have placed $9,284 across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader Iran leadership thesis.
- Buying No at 85¢ means they are backing the status quo through year-end 2026.
$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a proven 82% winner with $73.7k lifetime profit is taking the Yes side as part of a broader cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $73.7k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 30 events, with $222.9k tracked in this pattern.
- Selling No at 83¢ is effectively buying Yes at 17¢, suggesting a contrarian view versus the recent price drop.
$2,491 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Top Holders
- 0x706c...a94b — Yes, $136,115 (67% win rate)
- 0x8afa...adb6 — No, $129,647 (98% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $76,615 (48% win rate)
- 0x05e2...6e12 — No, $27,935 (67% win rate)
- 0x5cd5...ac33 — No, $23,546 (94% win rate)
- 0x8e5c...a68a — No, $22,831 (82% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $22,000 (73% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — No, $20,000 (81% win rate)
- 0x8c66...44f3 — No, $18,000 (85% win rate)
- 0x45a2...3c01 — Yes, $17,938
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