Part of: How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will make zero 25-basis-point rate hikes during 2026. It counts scheduled and emergency increases, with a 50-basis-point move treated as two hikes, and resolves after December 31, 2026; live odds were not included in the provided metadata.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,907.
Categories: Rate, fomc, Global Rates, federal reserve, Fed, Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, CPI Release
Notable Trades
Profitable serial macro trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large history is taking a fresh No position in a relatively quiet Fed 2026 market, though the individual trade size is modest.
- This bettor has traded across 117 related markets and is up about $517K lifetime.
- They win 70% of resolved bets and have put over $22M to work historically.
- This $1.5K No buy was larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, suggesting conviction in a quiet book.
$2,907 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $9,870
- 0xa022...77f8 — Yes, $3,221 (72% win rate)
- 0xd6f8...2d1d — Yes, $2,804 (73% win rate)
- 0x2ed8...93d4 — Yes, $2,621 (58% win rate)
- 0xf6ea...0a00 — Yes, $2,171 (81% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $2,045 (63% win rate)
- 0x6cb9...4f81 — Yes, $1,568
- 0x76db...6987 — No, $1,558
- 0x0ffc...8236 — No, $1,499 (51% win rate)
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $1,168
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