Part of: Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will officially announce another extension of the April 16, 2026 ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah by June 7 at 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. It covers both extensions of the existing Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and qualifying new agreements to halt direct military engagement. PolySpotter is tracking $7,210 in smart money activity, with recent sharp-wallet signals appearing on both Yes and No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $24,979.
Categories: Israel, Hezbollah, Geopolitics, Middle East, Lebanon
Notable Trades
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets are buying Yes together on a geopolitics market with strong 1-day momentum, including an 88% winner with positive lifetime P&L.
- One buyer has won 88% of 1,069 resolved trades and is up $105k lifetime.
- Three wallets put $7.2k on Yes in the same window, suggesting coordinated conviction.
- Yes is up 24.5 points in the past day, and these buys are adding to strong market momentum.
$7,210 on Yes
Proven geopolitical bettor
Surface despite the weak price-impact signal because the buyer has a strong 84% record across 95 resolved markets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $10.3K lifetime.
- They bought No at 70¢ on a live geopolitical market moving sharply today.
- Entry at 70¢ implies they see no ceasefire extension as underpriced despite the recent Yes rally.
$1,108 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable repeat wallet buys No
A profitable repeat wallet with an 83% record bought nearly $4k of No on a geopolitical market despite the position moving against them afterward.
- This bettor has won 10 of 12 resolved bets and is up about $3.4k lifetime.
- They put nearly $4k on No in a real-world geopolitical market where informed views are plausible.
- No is now around 53¢ versus their 68¢ entry, meaning the market is offering a cheaper follow-on price than the trader paid.
$3,998 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
96% win-rate geopolitics sharp
A highly profitable wallet with a 96% resolved win rate is buying No on a geopolitical ceasefire-extension market, backed by a strong serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 96% of resolved trades and is up $142k lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader across 38 events with the same 96% hit rate.
- Buying No at 79¢ means they are backing the ceasefire extension not being announced by the deadline.
$1,777 on No | Wallet win rate: 96%
96% winner leads No cluster
Three wallets bought nearly $9k of No, led by a highly profitable bettor with a 96% win rate and long serial cross-market history.
- A bettor who wins 96% of resolved trades joined this No bet and is up $141k lifetime.
- Three wallets bought $8.9k of No within three minutes, a large one-sided move for this market.
- The sharpest wallet has traded across 38 related events with a 96% hit rate, suggesting a repeatable edge.
$8,936 on No
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought No on a geopolitical ceasefire market, though the size and supporting signals are moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor is up $209K across more than 1,500 resolved markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 162 events and $1.57M in flagged event bets.
- Buying No at 78¢ suggests confidence that no ceasefire extension announcement comes by June 7.
$1,950 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xdf17...97d1 — Yes, $19,125 (54% win rate)
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $14,470 (41% win rate)
- 0xb454...9b90 — No, $13,952 (83% win rate)
- 0xefce...4e4a — Yes, $7,117 (50% win rate)
- 0x1e1f...c855 — No, $6,905 (57% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $5,400 (49% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Yes, $5,240 (69% win rate)
- 0x696a...e23a — Yes, $4,596 (88% win rate)
- 0xf027...3f04 — No, $4,356 (68% win rate)
- 0xf9b7...60a4 — No, $3,415 (62% win rate)
