Part of: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,215,722.
Categories: World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, putin, Russia, World, Politics, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with 1,073 resolved bets and $3.57M profit is adding to an existing Yes position at 58¢.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,073 resolved trades and earned $3.57M in profit.
- They are adding $3,547 to an existing Yes position despite the market trading below their 69¢ average entry.
- The trader has positioned across 90 events and 132 markets, indicating a broad and established strategy rather than a one-off bet.
$106,339 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with 1,073 resolved bets and $3.57M profit is adding to an existing Yes position at 58¢.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,073 resolved trades and earned $3.57M in profit.
- They are adding $3,547 to an existing Yes position despite the market trading below their 69¢ average entry.
- The trader has positioned across 90 events and 132 markets, indicating a broad and established strategy rather than a one-off bet.
$158,771 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
93% winner scales into Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with a 93% win rate is adding $10,449 to an existing Yes position amid an 18.8x volume spike.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $35,139 lifetime.
- They added $10,449 to an existing Yes position at 81¢, signaling continued conviction.
- Market activity is running 18.8x above its historical average while Yes has risen 5% in a day.
$10,449 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a large existing Yes position in a liquid political market, though the trader's historical performance is only moderately compelling.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this outcome, a stronger signal than a standalone bet.
- This bettor is adding at 73¢ to an existing $48,260 Yes position, showing sustained conviction.
- The wallet is up $119,608 lifetime across 175 resolved bets, though its 66% win rate is not exceptional relative to its 88¢ average winning entry.
$15,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Four-wallet funded cluster
Four wallets sharing a funder have built a concentrated Yes position, though the individual bettor's track record offers only modest evidence of edge.
- Four linked wallets have committed $9,636 to the same Russian election outcome across multiple runs.
- This bettor is adding to an existing Yes position with a $7,636 purchase at 77¢.
- The wallet wins 81% of resolved bets, though its 79¢ average winning entry suggests only modest proven edge.
$1,708 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Six-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A six-wallet funded cluster is reinforcing a large existing Yes position in a liquid political market, though the trader's historical performance is only moderately compelling.
- Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this outcome, a stronger signal than a standalone bet.
- This bettor is adding at 73¢ to an existing $48,260 Yes position, showing sustained conviction.
- The wallet is up $119,608 lifetime across 175 resolved bets, though its 66% win rate is not exceptional relative to its 88¢ average winning entry.
$23,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New whale scaling into Yes
A six-day-old wallet is adding to a substantial $61,000 Yes position while unusual volume and modest upward momentum support the thesis, though it has no resolved track record.
- This six-day-old wallet has committed about $61,000 to Yes, signaling strong conviction despite having no resolved positions.
- It added another $5,958 at 77¢ as the market posted a 41x historical volume spike and gained 3% in one day.
- The market is liquid and already prices Yes at 76%, so this is a conviction-following trade rather than a clear bargain.
$5,958 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp serial trader scaling into Yes
A proven serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position in a liquid political market.
- This bettor has won 82% of 40 resolved trades and is up $29,612, buying at materially lower average odds than their win rate.
- The wallet is adding $1,200 to an existing Yes position, signaling continued conviction rather than routine position management.
- The trade buys Yes at 69¢, implying the bettor sees a meaningful edge despite the market already pricing Yes at 68%.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Sharp serial trader scaling into Yes
A proven serial trader with an 82% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position in a liquid political market.
- This bettor has won 82% of 40 resolved trades and is up $29,612, buying at materially lower average odds than their win rate.
- The wallet is adding $1,200 to an existing Yes position, signaling continued conviction rather than routine position management.
- The trade buys Yes at 69¢, implying the bettor sees a meaningful edge despite the market already pricing Yes at 68%.
$5,361 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
90% winner buys against Yes
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate made a substantial contrarian move against the 76%-priced Yes outcome.
- This bettor has won 90% of 144 resolved trades and earned $237,556 in profit.
- A $22,500 sell of Yes at 75¢ indicates a sizable position favoring No at roughly 25¢.
- The wallet has traded across 61 events and 78 markets, suggesting broad experience rather than a one-off bet.
$22,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,225,373
- 0x202d...369c — No, $505,090
- 0xfde6...7ed6 — No, $411,391 (70% win rate)
- 0xc5a3...980e — No, $340,000
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — No, $265,979 (94% win rate)
- 0x73f6...3fa9 — No, $173,920
- 0x17a2...630b — No, $162,380 (89% win rate)
- 0x9e6d...0f65 — No, $155,616 (60% win rate)
- 0x202b...7ed7 — No, $138,593 (86% win rate)
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — No, $121,490
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