Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will remain in effect through September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. It resolves Yes if the ceasefire continues and No if either country takes a qualifying military action; the latest metadata does not include live Yes/No odds, but shows $5,726 in tracked smart money and recent activity around Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

11 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,224.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$5,726 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$3,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner backs ceasefire

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is reinforcing a Yes position through a coordinated seven-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 285 resolved trades and earned about $256,000.
  • The wallet traded across seven markets in this event, signaling a broad and consistent thesis rather than an isolated bet.
  • Selling No at 13¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 87¢, near the current 88% market price.

$1,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$1,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

A seven-wallet funded cluster and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, though the trader's 67% win rate does not independently show strong edge.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, with this cluster adding $2,666 to the position.
  • The wallet is part of a serial cross-market trader group that has positioned $191,256 across 14 markets in this event.
  • The trader bought Yes at a weighted average near 80¢, while the market now trades around 86¢; the 67% win rate is useful context but not exceptional versus the 87¢ average winning price.

$2,666 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner backs ceasefire

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is reinforcing a Yes position through a coordinated seven-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 285 resolved trades and earned about $256,000.
  • The wallet traded across seven markets in this event, signaling a broad and consistent thesis rather than an isolated bet.
  • Selling No at 13¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 87¢, near the current 88% market price.

$1,951 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$1,269 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner buys ceasefire continuation

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a fresh $3,105 position on Yes.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 2,233 resolved positions and is up $1.08 million.
  • The $3,105 Yes purchase at 87¢ represents fresh conviction from a serial cross-market trader active across 439 events.
  • The entry is near the market price, with a 1¢ spread and substantial liquidity supporting the position.

$3,105 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Serial 90% winner scaling into Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $19.5K to an existing Yes position at 82-83¢.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 246 resolved trades and earned about $751K in profit.
  • The wallet is active across 52 events and 104 markets, with $2.2M in tracked trading volume.
  • They added $19,458 to an existing Yes position, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume at 82-83¢.

$19,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%

Linked cluster scaling into Yes

Six linked wallets added roughly $12,000 to Yes at an average 70 cents, alongside a serial cross-market trader group with a 93% win rate and a 6-point price rise.

  • Six linked wallets collectively added $12,003 to Yes at an average entry near 70¢.
  • The wallets were adding to existing Yes positions, showing increased conviction rather than routine profit-taking.
  • Related cross-market activity includes a serial trader spanning 69 events with a 93% win rate, while Yes has risen 6 points in one day.

$12,003 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0xc851...cd2a Yes, $90,482 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xeb49...693e Yes, $83,757 (92% win rate)
  3. 0x88c4...129a Yes, $70,173 (90% win rate)
  4. 0xc3db...0f98 No, $53,531 (47% win rate)
  5. 0xcb4c...6d64 No, $50,058 (35% win rate)
  6. 0x453a...81d2 No, $43,187 (44% win rate)
  7. 0x614d...1546 Yes, $35,223 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x7f9e...3a0e Yes, $34,577 (92% win rate)
  9. 0x9648...6825 No, $28,660 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x8ca7...ad36 No, $26,744

Related Theses

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Iran ceasefire will hold

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Iran keeps airspace open

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Crude stays below $115

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Iranian blockade will persist through September

Covers 8 related markets

Ceasefire lasts into October, not December

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Israel closes airspace in September

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Iran blockade ends in August

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

18dIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$59,224 tracked11 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
85¢
No
16¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
90¢
84¢
78¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

3d ago

$5,726 on Yes at 86¢

86¢85¢1¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

3d ago

$3,376 on Yes at 86¢

86¢85¢1¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

4d ago

$1,740 on Yes at 87¢

87¢85¢2¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

4d ago

$1,055 on Yes at 86¢

86¢85¢1¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

4d ago

$2,666 on Yes at 80¢

80¢85¢5¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

6d ago

$1,951 on Yes at 87¢

87¢85¢2¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

8d ago

$1,269 on Yes at 86¢

86¢85¢1¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

10d ago

$3,105 on Yes at 87¢

87¢85¢2¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

10d ago

$19,458 on Yes at 82¢

82¢85¢3¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

30d ago

$12,003 on Yes at 70¢

70¢85¢15¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

32d ago

$6,875 on Yes at 78¢

78¢85¢7¢

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