Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

12 smart money signals detected, totaling $61,263.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor backs lasting ceasefire

A highly profitable bettor with a 76% win rate is taking a fresh bullish position on the ceasefire by selling No, while also positioning across eight markets in the same event.

  • This bettor has won 76% of 367 resolved trades and earned nearly $748,000.
  • Selling No at 11¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 89¢, signaling confidence the ceasefire continues.
  • The wallet has positions across eight markets in this event, with $33,274 deployed and a 76% historical win rate.

$2,039 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$5,726 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$3,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner backs ceasefire

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is reinforcing a Yes position through a coordinated seven-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 285 resolved trades and earned about $256,000.
  • The wallet traded across seven markets in this event, signaling a broad and consistent thesis rather than an isolated bet.
  • Selling No at 13¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 87¢, near the current 88% market price.

$1,740 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$1,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

A seven-wallet funded cluster and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, though the trader's 67% win rate does not independently show strong edge.

  • Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on Yes, with this cluster adding $2,666 to the position.
  • The wallet is part of a serial cross-market trader group that has positioned $191,256 across 14 markets in this event.
  • The trader bought Yes at a weighted average near 80¢, while the market now trades around 86¢; the 67% win rate is useful context but not exceptional versus the 87¢ average winning price.

$2,666 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner backs ceasefire

A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader is reinforcing a Yes position through a coordinated seven-market event thesis.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 285 resolved trades and earned about $256,000.
  • The wallet traded across seven markets in this event, signaling a broad and consistent thesis rather than an isolated bet.
  • Selling No at 13¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 87¢, near the current 88% market price.

$1,951 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Seven-wallet ceasefire cluster

Seven linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support a coordinated Yes thesis, despite the bettor's only moderate historical win rate.

  • Seven linked wallets share a funder and are positioning in the same direction, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The trader and related wallets have placed $189,859 across 13 markets tied to this event.
  • The individual bettor is up $135,193 lifetime across 213 resolved bets, though their 67% win rate is not independently exceptional.

$1,269 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

94% winner buys ceasefire continuation

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and substantial positive edge is taking a fresh $3,105 position on Yes.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 2,233 resolved positions and is up $1.08 million.
  • The $3,105 Yes purchase at 87¢ represents fresh conviction from a serial cross-market trader active across 439 events.
  • The entry is near the market price, with a 1¢ spread and substantial liquidity supporting the position.

$3,105 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Serial 90% winner scaling into Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% win rate is adding $19.5K to an existing Yes position at 82-83¢.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 246 resolved trades and earned about $751K in profit.
  • The wallet is active across 52 events and 104 markets, with $2.2M in tracked trading volume.
  • They added $19,458 to an existing Yes position, representing 61% of the market’s 24-hour volume at 82-83¢.

$19,458 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc3db...0f98 — No, $62,635 (33% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 — No, $60,784 (72% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $40,836 (76% win rate)
  4. 0xf8f4...7b87 — No, $33,649
  5. 0x53e5...6177 — No, $25,200 (44% win rate)
  6. 0x9592...a7b8 — No, $23,932 (76% win rate)
  7. 0x3925...d2f2 — No, $22,334
  8. 0x8aaa...51df — No, $22,053 (82% win rate)
  9. 0x9865...57ac — No, $20,056 (67% win rate)
  10. 0x94ce...a9fa — No, $20,000 (67% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 11 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 10 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 6 related markets

Crude stays below $115

Covers 5 related markets

Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$61,263 tracked12 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-12 15:43 UTC

$2,039 on Yes at 89¢

89¢→100¢↑11¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-08 10:41 UTC

$5,726 on Yes at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-08 08:41 UTC

$3,376 on Yes at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-07 15:03 UTC

$1,740 on Yes at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-07 12:00 UTC

$1,055 on Yes at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-07 10:49 UTC

$2,666 on Yes at 80¢

80¢→100¢↑20¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

$1,951 on Yes at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-03 10:37 UTC

$1,269 on Yes at 86¢

86¢→100¢↑14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-09-01 03:13 UTC

$3,105 on Yes at 87¢

87¢→100¢↑13¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-08-31 22:33 UTC

$19,458 on Yes at 82¢

82¢→100¢↑18¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-08-12 11:00 UTC

$12,003 on Yes at 70¢

70¢→100¢↑30¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

2026-08-10 13:42 UTC

$6,875 on Yes at 78¢

78¢→100¢↑22¢

Related Theses

Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 11 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Wallet_0x88c49 trades 3 related markets
Kharg Island no longer under I…Kharg Island no longer under I…Kharg Island no longer under I…
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 4 related markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…Iran x Israel/US conflict ends…
Iran ceasefire will hold
Wallet_0x88c49 trades 10 related markets
Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…Will the Iran ceasefire contin…
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 5 related markets
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (…
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 12 related markets
US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…US x Iran permanent peace deal…
Iran keeps airspace open
Wallet_0x88c49 trades 6 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Crude stays below $115
Wallet_0x88c49 trades 5 related markets
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH)…
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 8 related markets
Iran closes its airspace by Ju…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…Iran closes its airspace by Ma…
Iran deal by mid-June
Wallet_0xfc2f4 trades 13 related markets
US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…US announces new Iran agreemen…