Part of: US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
This Polymarket market asks whether the US-Iran ceasefire continues through November 2, 2026. It resolves No if the United States carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts Iran by 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time; otherwise, it resolves Yes. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data; one tracked smart-money alert reported a 94% winner adding to No.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,737.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Israel, Military, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel x Iran, Military Actions, Military Strikes
Notable Trades
93%-winning serial cross-market bettor
A proven bettor with 93% wins across 82 resolved markets is adding to an existing Yes position, despite recent downward price movement.
- This bettor has won 76 of 82 resolved markets and is up $63,859.
- They are adding $2,252 to an existing Yes position after trading across 25 events.
- The Yes price has fallen 9.3% in a day, so this entry comes amid opposing market momentum.
$2,252 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
94% winner adding to No
A highly profitable bettor with a 94% win rate is adding to an existing No position, alongside a No price move and related-event activity.
- This bettor has won 34 of 36 resolved bets and is up nearly $30,000.
- They added $1,485 to an existing No position already backed with over $15,000.
- No moved up 16% amid $14,901 of related-event trading across three markets.
$1,485 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Top Holders
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $150,484 (53% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $52,538 (72% win rate)
- 0x12d6...f2a8 — Yes, $27,531 (47% win rate)
- 0x1359...092e — Yes, $22,244 (83% win rate)
- 0x62e9...fbb9 — Yes, $16,613 (94% win rate)
- 0xe176...7f65 — No, $15,667 (94% win rate)
- 0xf57d...7e56 — No, $12,635
- 0x401e...6fc9 — Yes, $12,299 (52% win rate)
- 0x264c...baca — Yes, $12,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x8afa...adb6 — Yes, $11,998 (98% win rate)
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