Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $275,244.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market contrarian
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh contrarian No position after heavy prior activity across related markets.
- This bettor has made $1.63M in profit across 902 resolved trades.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $188.6K positioned on this event.
- Buying No at 9¢ goes against a sharp Yes move, implying a high-upside contrarian view.
$5,681 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Serial cross-market whale buying YES
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable history bought Yes before a major volume spike and 15-point move to 95%.
- This bettor has traded 64 related markets across 35 events, with a 64% win rate and $48.5K profit.
- They bought $8.5K of Yes at 80–84¢ before the market moved to 95¢.
- Volume surged 122x above normal, matching a sharp 70-point one-day move toward Yes.
$8,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
11-wallet linked No cluster
High-conviction coordinated No flow from 11 wallets, including linked funding and several profitable serial cross-market bettors, though much of the flow may be Yes profit-taking rather than fresh No buying.
- 11 wallets put $66.8k toward No, including linked wallets moving in the same direction.
- Several bettors have strong histories, including wallets up $1.55M, $255k, and $223k lifetime.
- No now trades near 6¢ after this cluster paid much higher prices, giving a cheaper entry than the original flow.
$66,776 on No
64% serial trader bought before spike
Serial cross-market trader bought $10.2k of Yes before a massive price move and market-wide volume spike, though the current 98¢ price is already above a reasonable copy range.
- This serial event trader has bet $1.9M across 64 markets and wins 64% of resolved bets.
- They bought $10.2k of Yes at an average 79¢ before the price surged to 98¢.
- Market volume spiked up to 69x normal, with Yes up 73 points in the past day.
$10,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
81% serial cross-market bettor
High-score alert from an 81% winning serial cross-market trader adding bullish Yes exposure amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and has deployed $1.25M across 67 markets.
- They are positioned across 7 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade effectively bought Yes at 88¢, and the market has already moved to 95¢ after a 68x volume spike.
$1,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Serial cross-market winner buying Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes as the market surged on heavy volume, with related positions across six markets suggesting a broader thesis.
- This bettor has won 67% of 639 resolved bets and is up about $256K lifetime.
- They have traded 78 related events and put $46.9K across six markets in this event.
- Yes jumped 42 points amid a 68x volume spike, and this trade entered at 88¢ before the market moved to 95¢.
$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Sharp cross-market trader buying Yes
Strong Yes signal from a proven 74% win-rate cross-market trader, plus 13 wallets buying the same side amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved bets and is up $221K lifetime across $23.8M traded.
- They are positioned across 6 related markets with $84.8K in exposure, pointing to a broader Iran-operation thesis.
- 13 wallets bought the same Yes side for $61K as market volume spiked 63x and Yes jumped 34% in a day.
$1,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial trader led Yes surge
Strong Yes flow from a serial cross-market trader plus 13-wallet one-sided buying and a 63x volume spike, though the best entry has already moved sharply from 32¢ to 60¢.
- This bettor has traded 64 related markets across 35 events and has a 64% resolved win rate.
- 13 wallets bought the same Yes side for about $61K during a 63x volume spike.
- The trader entered at 32¢ and the market has already jumped to 60¢, so the original edge may be mostly gone.
$4,963 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
97% winner joins 13-wallet YES flow
Strong geopolitical alert: a 97% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes alongside 13-wallet one-sided flow and a 63x volume spike before the price jumped.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,373 resolved bets and is up $254K.
- 13 wallets bought Yes together for $61K as market volume spiked 63x.
- They entered at 47¢ before Yes moved to 60¢, so the sharp entry has already paid off.
$4,901 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 96%
Profitable cross-market trader buying NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying No after positioning across multiple related Iran-operation markets.
- This bettor has made $1.55M in profit across 902 resolved bets.
- They have traded 64 markets across 44 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling Yes at 32¢ is equivalent to buying No at 68¢ on a market currently moving toward Yes.
$5,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0xf792...e24d — Outcome 10508815, $30,000
- 0x6418...730c — Outcome 10508815, $27,315 (63% win rate)
- 0xd1ac...08d5 — Outcome 10508815, $23,918 (49% win rate)
- 0x8f15...f9f2 — Outcome 10508815, $15,270
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10508815, $14,000 (45% win rate)
- 0x76fe...36e8 — Outcome 10508815, $13,793
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 10508815, $13,675 (71% win rate)
- 0xd83b...4863 — Outcome 10508815, $13,514
- 0x95f4...202a — Outcome 10508815, $12,901
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 10508815, $11,482 (69% win rate)
