Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
This Polymarket asks whether President Trump, the US government, or the US military will officially announce that military operations against Iran have ended by May 31, 2026. To resolve Yes, there must be a clear public statement confirming the operation has concluded; leaks, unnamed sources, or informal comments do not count. The market is focused on official language and timing, making it a direct way to follow odds around a possible Iran ceasefire or end-of-operations announcement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,584.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
New wallet betting big again
A 2-day-old wallet has already made six large flagged bets totaling $17.6k and is now buying Yes again in a major geopolitical market, suggesting sustained high-conviction positioning worth watching.
- This 2-day-old wallet has already triggered 6 large-bet alerts totaling $17.6k
- It is adding fresh size in a major geopolitics market, buying Yes at 74¢
- The market is active and liquid enough that this looks like deliberate conviction, not a random punt
$3,000 on Yes
Repeat new wallet whale
A new wallet has repeatedly deployed meaningful size across this event and just made a fresh $3.5k bullish bet on Yes by selling No, suggesting concentrated conviction rather than routine activity.
- This new wallet has already triggered 4 large-bet alerts, with $7.9k flagged despite no resolved history yet
- Both trades were sells of No, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 69¢ and 80¢ in a market priced around 72¢
- The bet size is meaningful but not market-moving in a fairly liquid news market, so the main signal is repeated conviction from a fresh wallet
$3,513 on Yes
3-wallet Iran ceasefire cluster
Three wallets piled into Yes for $12k during a 32x volume spike in a fast-moving geopolitics market, creating a coordinated directional signal despite mixed wallet quality.
- Three wallets bought Yes for $12.1k in the same market during a 32x volume spike
- This is a news-driven geopolitics market, and the price jumped 21.5 points in a day as money rushed in
- The biggest buyer has a solid 71% win rate across 21 resolved markets and put up $8.9k of the cluster
$12,071 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $43,504 (70% win rate)
- 0xa99c...3070 — No, $16,978 (33% win rate)
- 0xdaef...54e9 — No, $11,706 (61% win rate)
- 0xcf60...a6f5 — No, $9,989 (53% win rate)
- 0xc89d...b1f1 — Yes, $8,966 (100% win rate)
- 0x9812...644f — No, $8,570
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $7,962 (47% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $6,708 (86% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $6,219 (70% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — No, $6,000 (37% win rate)
