Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
200 signals across 7 markets · $1,308,488 tracked · resolves Jun 30, 2026
This Polymarket event tracks whether President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military officially announces the end of U.S. military operations against Iran by several deadlines, from March 31 through June 30, 2026. Traders are pricing multiple date-based outcomes, making this a prediction market on both whether and how soon an official conclusion is announced. PolySpotter has tracked over $1.3M in smart money activity across 200 signals, including sharp Yes buying and multiple No clusters.
Markets (7)
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?51 signals · $279,955 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?40 signals · $275,244 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?24 signals · $220,093 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?36 signals · $207,728 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?38 signals · $193,974 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?4 signals · $91,288 tracked
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?7 signals · $40,206 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 11-wallet linked No cluster
High-conviction coordinated No flow from 11 wallets, including linked funding and several profitable serial cross-market bettors, though much of the flow may be Yes profit-taking rather than fresh No buying.
$66,776Score: 72.7 - Sharp cross-market No cluster
Coordinated No buying is backed by profitable cross-market traders, a major volume spike, and a 15-point move in No, though there is also meaningful opposite-side Yes flow.
$12,707Score: 47.2 - Sharp cross-market trader buying Yes
Strong Yes signal from a proven 74% win-rate cross-market trader, plus 13 wallets buying the same side amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.
$1,737Wallet win rate: 72%Score: 20.3 - 7-wallet sharp YES cluster
High-conviction cluster: 7 wallets bought $27.6k of Yes during a 29.6x volume spike, with several profitable serial cross-market traders involved.
$27,640Score: 19.8 - 14-wallet funded cluster
A large linked-wallet cluster is rotating into No on a major geopolitical market, with 4 coordinated wallets and one profitable high-volume bettor despite mixed individual wallet quality.
$12,155Score: 19.5 - Serial trader led Yes surge
Strong Yes flow from a serial cross-market trader plus 13-wallet one-sided buying and a 63x volume spike, though the best entry has already moved sharply from 32¢ to 60¢.
$4,963Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 16.8 - 4-wallet event cluster
Four wallets simultaneously flipped into Yes by selling No around 87-89¢, and the broader cluster has been building a coordinated thesis across six related Iran-event markets with meaningful size.
$39,528Score: 16.5 - 64% serial trader bought before spike
Serial cross-market trader bought $10.2k of Yes before a massive price move and market-wide volume spike, though the current 98¢ price is already above a reasonable copy range.
$10,170Wallet win rate: 70%Score: 16.2 - 15-wallet thesis cluster
A proven profitable serial event trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster is re-entering this Iran market via a large sell of No, which converts to a fresh buy of Yes around 15¢.
$10,857Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 16.0 - Profitable 3-wallet NO cluster
Three experienced, profitable wallets aligned on No around 20¢ across related Iran-operation markets, creating a coordinated cross-market signal despite one trade appearing to be profit-taking.
$8,347Score: 14.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0xa022ba…77f8$120,485 · 4 markets · 16 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$95,537 · 3 markets · 13 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xde7be6…5f4b$74,201 · 3 markets · 11 alerts · 79% wins
- 0x85b1ff…0e45$60,965 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 100% wins
- 0x129a74…9fb6$53,117 · 1 market · 1 alert
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$45,484 · 6 markets · 11 alerts · 81% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$41,015 · 5 markets · 24 alerts · 82% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$29,489 · 4 markets · 7 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x68c24b…1711$28,393 · 4 markets · 6 alerts · 55% wins
- 0x5188fa…c804$24,893 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Trump ending military operations against Iran?
This event has separate Polymarket markets for different deadlines, including March 31, April 7, April 15, April 21, April 30, May 31, and June 30, 2026. The odds can differ by date because traders are betting not just on whether an official announcement happens, but when it happens.
What is the smart money doing on this Trump-Iran market?
PolySpotter has tracked more than $1.3 million in smart money across this event, with 200 signals. Recent alerts show mixed positioning, including sharp cross-market No clusters, an 11-wallet linked No cluster, and sharp Yes buying from a 7-wallet cluster.
What would make these markets resolve to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes only if Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military operations against Iran initiated on February 28, 2026 have concluded by that market’s listed deadline.
Do leaks or unofficial reports count for resolution?
No. The rules require a clear public and official statement that the operation has ended. Informal comments, unnamed sources, leaks, or ambiguous reporting would not qualify on their own.
When does this Polymarket event resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own listed deadline, with the latest deadline in this event being June 30, 2026 at 23:55 UTC.