Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether the US government or military officially confirms it has gained physical possession or control of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $22,346 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this geopolitics market, with alerts from cross-market and geopolitics-focused bettors. The market resolves “Yes” only on an official US announcement or confirmation; deals, plans, or commitments alone are not enough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
34 smart money signals detected, totaling $197,006.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
97% winner buying No
Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
- They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.
$22,346 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
97% winner buys No
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a 97% resolved-bet record and is making a $10.5k No bet equal to 82% of daily volume.
- This bettor has won 28 of 29 resolved bets and is up about $63.9k lifetime.
- They put $10.5k on No, a size equal to 82% of the market’s 24h volume.
- Buying No at 83¢ signals confidence the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the deadline.
$10,530 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%
82% winner buying YES
Surfaced because this is a proven 82% winner with strong cross-market history converting a No sale into a Yes position on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $71.8K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 29 events with $206K tracked in similar positioning.
- Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, matching the current market ask.
$2,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Proven cross-market bettor
Experienced positive-P&L wallet with a 76% resolved win rate is re-entering No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $24.7K lifetime.
- They have placed about $36K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This is a fresh re-entry on No after previously closing a larger No position.
$2,224 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable whale buying NO
A very profitable high-volume wallet is buying $8.6k of No while also positioning across related Iran markets, though the signal is moderate rather than urgent.
- This bettor is up about $1.48M lifetime across over 1,200 resolved markets.
- They bought $8.6K of No at 82¢, a large trade relative to recent activity in this market.
- The same wallet has put about $21.6K across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$8,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable whale's Iran thesis
A profitable high-volume wallet is making a $30k cross-market Iran thesis, including a fresh $9k buy on No here.
- This wallet is up $476k lifetime and has traded over $57M on Polymarket.
- They have put $30k across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $9k buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.
$9,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%
81% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64K lifetime.
- They have traded 37 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢, implying a potential 5x payout if it resolves Yes.
$2,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Borderline but worth surfacing because a very active profitable wallet is expressing a $33k cross-market thesis in a geopolitics market, with this trade equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
- This experienced bettor is up $421k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They have put $33k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
$1,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable Iran thesis bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying $7.5k of No here and $20.6k across related markets.
- This bettor is up $1.35M lifetime across 1,231 resolved trades.
- They have put $20.6k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- This $7.5k No buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume of $5.9k.
$7,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
$1.35M-profit cross-market bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is adding a $9.8k No bet as part of a broader cross-market position on the same geopolitical event.
- This bettor has made $1.35M lifetime across 1,230 resolved bets.
- They bought $9.8k of No at 79¢, a meaningful position on a geopolitical market.
- They have $22.8k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
$9,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $153,233 (69% win rate)
- 0xdf17...97d1 — No, $70,766 (54% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — No, $60,920 (63% win rate)
- 0x4755...4158 — No, $56,239 (97% win rate)
- 0xc615...e982 — Yes, $40,471 (40% win rate)
- 0x5bec...03e8 — Yes, $30,000
- 0x2202...8787 — No, $29,799 (100% win rate)
- 0x095d...52cf — No, $28,550
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $25,000 (70% win rate)
- 0x8b71...8044 — No, $20,595 (89% win rate)
