Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

This prediction market tracks whether the US government or military officially confirms it has gained physical possession or control of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $22,346 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this geopolitics market, with alerts from cross-market and geopolitics-focused bettors. The market resolves “Yes” only on an official US announcement or confirmation; deals, plans, or commitments alone are not enough.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

34 smart money signals detected, totaling $197,006.

Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Negotiation Topics

Notable Trades

97% winner buying No

Sharp profitable wallet with a 97% resolved-bet win record placed a $22.3k No bet despite only a weak low-activity signal.

  • This bettor has won 29 of 30 resolved bets and is up about $65.9k lifetime.
  • They put $22.3k on No, equal to about 74% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • Entry at 85¢ is a high-confidence favorite bet rather than a long-shot trade.

$22,346 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

97% winner buys No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a 97% resolved-bet record and is making a $10.5k No bet equal to 82% of daily volume.

  • This bettor has won 28 of 29 resolved bets and is up about $63.9k lifetime.
  • They put $10.5k on No, a size equal to 82% of the market’s 24h volume.
  • Buying No at 83¢ signals confidence the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the deadline.

$10,530 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

82% winner buying YES

Surfaced because this is a proven 82% winner with strong cross-market history converting a No sale into a Yes position on a geopolitical market.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $71.8K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 29 events with $206K tracked in similar positioning.
  • Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, matching the current market ask.

$2,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Proven cross-market bettor

Experienced positive-P&L wallet with a 76% resolved win rate is re-entering No as part of a larger cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $24.7K lifetime.
  • They have placed about $36K across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This is a fresh re-entry on No after previously closing a larger No position.

$2,224 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable whale buying NO

A very profitable high-volume wallet is buying $8.6k of No while also positioning across related Iran markets, though the signal is moderate rather than urgent.

  • This bettor is up about $1.48M lifetime across over 1,200 resolved markets.
  • They bought $8.6K of No at 82¢, a large trade relative to recent activity in this market.
  • The same wallet has put about $21.6K across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.

$8,572 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable whale's Iran thesis

A profitable high-volume wallet is making a $30k cross-market Iran thesis, including a fresh $9k buy on No here.

  • This wallet is up $476k lifetime and has traded over $57M on Polymarket.
  • They have put $30k across 3 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $9k buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.

$9,043 on No | Wallet win rate: 54%

81% serial cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying Yes at 20¢ on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64K lifetime.
  • They have traded 37 markets across 26 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
  • Selling No at 80¢ is the same as buying Yes at 20¢, implying a potential 5x payout if it resolves Yes.

$2,261 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor

Borderline but worth surfacing because a very active profitable wallet is expressing a $33k cross-market thesis in a geopolitics market, with this trade equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.

  • This experienced bettor is up $421k lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
  • They have put $33k across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Selling No at 82¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.

$1,415 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%

Profitable Iran thesis bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market Iran thesis, buying $7.5k of No here and $20.6k across related markets.

  • This bettor is up $1.35M lifetime across 1,231 resolved trades.
  • They have put $20.6k across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • This $7.5k No buy is larger than the market’s recent 24h volume of $5.9k.

$7,536 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

$1.35M-profit cross-market bettor

A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is adding a $9.8k No bet as part of a broader cross-market position on the same geopolitical event.

  • This bettor has made $1.35M lifetime across 1,230 resolved bets.
  • They bought $9.8k of No at 79¢, a meaningful position on a geopolitical market.
  • They have $22.8k positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.

$9,778 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $153,233 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $70,766 (54% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $60,920 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x4755...4158 No, $56,239 (97% win rate)
  5. 0xc615...e982 Yes, $40,471 (40% win rate)
  6. 0x5bec...03e8 Yes, $30,000
  7. 0x2202...8787 No, $29,799 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x095d...52cf No, $28,550
  9. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $25,000 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x8b71...8044 No, $20,595 (89% win rate)

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

181dUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?$197,006 tracked34 signalsTrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefirePoliticsNegotiation Topics
Yes
13¢
No
88¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
90¢
88¢
86¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

17d ago

$22,346 on No at 85¢

85¢88¢3¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

19d ago

$10,530 on No at 83¢

83¢88¢5¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

20d ago

$2,025 on Yes at 19¢

19¢13¢6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

22d ago

$2,224 on No at 81¢

81¢88¢7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

26d ago

$8,572 on No at 82¢

82¢88¢6¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

27d ago

$9,043 on No at 81¢

81¢88¢7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

29d ago

$2,261 on Yes at 20¢

20¢13¢7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

29d ago

$1,415 on Yes at 18¢

18¢13¢5¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

30d ago

$7,536 on No at 80¢

80¢88¢8¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

32d ago

$9,778 on No at 79¢

79¢88¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

32d ago

$3,950 on No at 79¢

79¢88¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

33d ago

$4,007 on No at 78¢

78¢88¢10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

33d ago

$2,037 on Yes at 23¢

23¢13¢10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

33d ago

$12,892 on Yes at 22¢

22¢13¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

33d ago

$6,882 on Yes at 23¢

23¢13¢10¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

35d ago

$2,340 on Yes at 22¢

22¢13¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

36d ago

$8,261 on Yes at 22¢

22¢13¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

36d ago

$2,682 on No at 81¢

81¢88¢7¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

36d ago

$7,900 on No at 79¢

79¢88¢9¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

37d ago

$3,792 on No at 77¢

77¢88¢11¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

38d ago

$2,114 on No at 77¢

77¢88¢11¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

39d ago

$1,438 on Yes at 29¢

29¢13¢16¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

39d ago

$1,702 on No at 76¢

76¢88¢12¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

39d ago

$1,807 on No at 75¢

75¢88¢13¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

39d ago

$1,249 on Yes at 29¢

29¢13¢16¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

42d ago

$1,947 on Yes at 28¢

28¢13¢15¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

44d ago

$9,875 on No at 74¢

74¢88¢14¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

47d ago

$2,960 on No at 74¢

74¢88¢14¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

51d ago

$2,847 on Yes at 28¢

28¢13¢15¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

52d ago

$4,353 on Yes at 27¢

27¢13¢14¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

53d ago

$5,000 on No at 76¢

76¢88¢12¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

56d ago

$7,780 on No at 71¢

71¢88¢17¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

56d ago

$7,477 on No at 71¢

71¢88¢17¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

73d ago

$15,985 on No at 63¢

63¢88¢25¢

Related Theses