Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

This Polymarket market asks whether the U.S. government or military will officially confirm it has gained physical possession or control of any enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks smart-money activity on this market, with $2,847 in smart money followed and recent alerts showing notable No-side interest from profitable macro and cross-market traders.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $43,443.

Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics

Notable Trades

89% win-rate cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 89% resolved win rate bought Yes on a geopolitical market, making the wallet track record the main copy signal despite modest size.

  • This bettor wins 89% of resolved bets across 453 markets and has traded over $2.3M.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with activity in 387 events, suggesting a repeatable research-driven strategy.
  • Buying Yes at 28¢ implies they see meaningful upside versus the current market price.

$2,847 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%

Profitable cross-market whale

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes on an Iran uranium market as part of a broader event position.

  • This bettor has a long track record: 908 resolved markets, 64% wins, and $1.63M in profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $3.24M deployed across 77 markets and 50 events.
  • Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢, close to the current market price.

$4,353 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable cross-market No bettor

Profitable 81% lifetime wallet is putting $10k+ across related Iran uranium markets, including a $5k Buy No here, but the edge is moderated by the long-dated market and favorite entry.

  • This bettor has won 81% of 545 resolved bets and is up $72.6k lifetime.
  • They have put $10.3k across related markets, including $5k on No here.
  • Entry at 76¢ suggests a lower-risk favorite bet rather than a long-shot swing.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.6M lifetime P&L is adding a $7.8k No bet as part of an $80k related-event position.

  • This bettor wins 63% of resolved trades and is up $1.6M lifetime.
  • They have traded 75 markets across 48 events, with $80.7k positioned across two related markets here.
  • Buying No at 71¢ suggests a confident view that the US will not obtain Iranian enriched uranium by the deadline.

$7,780 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% resolved win rate bought $7.5k of No while also positioning across a related market.

  • This bettor wins 74% of resolved trades and is up $227k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 80 events and are now putting $11.4k into related markets here.
  • The $7.5k No buy at 71¢ implies they see the current 70% No price as still attractive.

$7,477 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Profitable macro trader presses No

A highly active profitable trader with 887 resolved bets and $1.37M P&L made a nearly $16k No bet that represented almost all of this market’s 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 887 resolved trades and is up $1.37M lifetime.
  • Their $16.0k buy made up 96% of this market’s 24-hour volume, showing real conviction.
  • They trade heavily across related events and bought No at 63¢, below the current 68¢ market price.

$15,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $60,584 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xbaa2...2c73 No, $44,969 (64% win rate)
  3. 0xc021...1fa8 No, $34,045 (54% win rate)
  4. 0xdf17...97d1 No, $21,043 (53% win rate)
  5. 0x2202...8787 No, $16,469 (100% win rate)
  6. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $15,000 (70% win rate)
  7. 0x3ac4...0e8b Yes, $13,500
  8. 0xb48e...a144 Yes, $12,000
  9. 0x1e1f...c855 Yes, $10,000 (57% win rate)
  10. 0x3a8a...7699 Yes, $10,000 (89% win rate)

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

230dUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?$43,443 tracked6 signalsTrumpIranU.S. x IranGeopoliticsIran CeasefirePolitics
Yes
28¢
No
73¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
78¢
74¢
70¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

2d ago

$2,847 on Yes at 28¢

28¢28¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

3d ago

$4,353 on Yes at 27¢

27¢28¢1¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

4d ago

$5,000 on No at 76¢

76¢73¢3¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

7d ago

$7,780 on No at 71¢

71¢73¢2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

7d ago

$7,477 on No at 71¢

71¢73¢2¢

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

24d ago

$15,985 on No at 63¢

63¢73¢10¢

Related Theses