Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,056.
Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is taking the Yes side on a geopolitical ceasefire market at 16¢.
- This bettor has won 64% of 1,608 resolved trades and is up about $255k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 168 events with over $1.6M tracked in similar positioning.
- Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a low-cost bet on the ceasefire ending.
$1,893 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Serial cross-market bettor
Surfaced because a highly active serial cross-market trader with a long positive record is taking a Yes-leaning position across related Iran ceasefire markets.
- This bettor has 799 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up $22.4K lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 events and 57 related markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 80¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 20¢, while the market currently sits near 18¢.
$1,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is taking the contrarian Yes side on a liquid geopolitics market, though the stake is modest.
- This bettor is up $105k across 1,406 resolved markets.
- They have traded 224 markets across 109 events, showing a repeated cross-market strategy.
- Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢ after Yes moved up 6.5% today.
$1,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Experienced cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the stake is modest and the price is a heavy favorite.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,098 resolved trades and is up $279k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 65 events and 102 markets.
- They bought No at 86¢, backing the current favorite in a high-volume market.
$1,425 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with 895 resolved bets and +$374k lifetime P&L bought $5.1k of No on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 62% of 895 resolved bets and is up $374k lifetime.
- They have traded across 34 events and 81 markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Buying No at 89¢ implies they see a ceasefire breakdown announcement as very unlikely.
$5,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Top Holders
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10210195, $73,553 (71% win rate)
- 0x8ad8...41b6 — Outcome 10210195, $35,969
- 0x5109...5e9c — Outcome 10210195, $21,314 (40% win rate)
- 0x557a...3d56 — Outcome 10210195, $18,619 (81% win rate)
- 0x9926...5d2c — Outcome 10210195, $11,410
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10210195, $9,819 (79% win rate)
- 0x31d3...6e63 — Outcome 10210195, $8,343
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — Outcome 10210195, $7,000 (36% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Outcome 10210195, $4,817 (92% win rate)
- 0xcc26...32ca — Outcome 10210195, $4,550 (42% win rate)
Related Theses
Hormuz lift before June
Covers 5 related markets
Iran deal before June
Covers 4 related markets
No Iran peace deal in 2026
Covers 9 related markets
Iran peace deal comes early
Covers 11 related markets
Iran deal after April 22
Covers 9 related markets
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 7 related markets
