Part of: Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,056.

Categories: Iran, Geopolitics, Middle East, Trump, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large sample is taking the Yes side on a geopolitical ceasefire market at 16¢.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 1,608 resolved trades and is up about $255k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 168 events with over $1.6M tracked in similar positioning.
  • Selling No at 84¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 16¢, a low-cost bet on the ceasefire ending.

$1,893 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial cross-market bettor

Surfaced because a highly active serial cross-market trader with a long positive record is taking a Yes-leaning position across related Iran ceasefire markets.

  • This bettor has 799 resolved trades, wins 66% of them, and is up $22.4K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 35 events and 57 related markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market strategy.
  • Selling No at 80¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 20¢, while the market currently sits near 18¢.

$1,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is taking the contrarian Yes side on a liquid geopolitics market, though the stake is modest.

  • This bettor is up $105k across 1,406 resolved markets.
  • They have traded 224 markets across 109 events, showing a repeated cross-market strategy.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is effectively buying Yes at 15¢ after Yes moved up 6.5% today.

$1,147 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Experienced cross-market trader with a long profitable history is buying No on a geopolitics market, though the stake is modest and the price is a heavy favorite.

  • This bettor has won 67% of 1,098 resolved trades and is up $279k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 65 events and 102 markets.
  • They bought No at 86¢, backing the current favorite in a high-volume market.

$1,425 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable serial cross-market trader with 895 resolved bets and +$374k lifetime P&L bought $5.1k of No on a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 62% of 895 resolved bets and is up $374k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 34 events and 81 markets, suggesting a repeat cross-market thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Buying No at 89¢ implies they see a ceasefire breakdown announcement as very unlikely.

$5,119 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 10210195, $73,553 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x8ad8...41b6 Outcome 10210195, $35,969
  3. 0x557a...3d56 Outcome 10210195, $18,619 (81% win rate)
  4. 0x9926...5d2c Outcome 10210195, $11,410
  5. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 10210195, $9,819 (75% win rate)
  6. 0x31d3...6e63 Outcome 10210195, $8,343
  7. 0x34ab...3eb5 Outcome 10210195, $7,000 (36% win rate)
  8. 0x86e9...4cdf Outcome 10210195, $4,817 (92% win rate)
  9. 0xcc26...32ca Outcome 10210195, $4,550 (42% win rate)
  10. 0x9514...9017 Outcome 10210195, $4,200

Related Theses

Hormuz lift before June

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal before June

Covers 4 related markets

No Iran peace deal in 2026

Covers 9 related markets

Iran peace deal comes early

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal after April 22

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

ResolvedTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?$11,056 tracked5 signalsIranGeopoliticsMiddle EastTrumpIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities. Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify. Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify. Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

Notable Trades

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

41d ago

$1,893 on Yes at 16¢

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

42d ago

$1,471 on Yes at 20¢

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

42d ago

$1,147 on Yes at 15¢

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

42d ago

$1,425 on No at 86¢

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

42d ago

$5,119 on No at 89¢

Related Theses