Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

This prediction market asks whether IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of at least 60 Strait of Hormuz transit calls by August 31, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $12,000 in smart money activity, with recent signals showing notable bettors adding to the No side.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $28,318.

Categories: Geopolitics, Iran, Oil, Politics, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Serial bettor adding No

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
  • They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
  • Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.

$12,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Serial bettor adding No

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
  • They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
  • Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.

$10,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

92% winner buys No

Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.

$2,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

92% winner buys No

Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
  • They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
  • A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.

$3,783 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0c0e...434e No, $80,613 (64% win rate)
  2. 0x8432...8360 Yes, $65,286 (71% win rate)
  3. 0xa07d...9871 Yes, $43,380 (42% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $40,215 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x25db...28de Yes, $38,000 (48% win rate)
  6. 0xbf96...9942 No, $36,850 (77% win rate)
  7. 0x96b5...f5e7 No, $35,327
  8. 0xca82...e1f2 Yes, $35,301 (33% win rate)
  9. 0xf797...0bf2 Yes, $34,354 (48% win rate)
  10. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $32,155 (71% win rate)

Related Theses

Houthis avoid Saudi attacks

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Maduro remains in power

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Houthis will hit shipping

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Iran talks get extended

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Hormuz disruptions persist past August

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No US-Iran nuclear deal

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Iran leadership remains unchanged

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Díaz-Canel stays in power

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Israel keeps airspace open

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Iran agreement after May deadline

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

42dStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$28,318 tracked4 signalsGeopoliticsIranOilPoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Price History — “No
92¢
86¢
80¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

4d ago

$12,000 on No at 89¢

89¢91¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

4d ago

$10,235 on No at 89¢

89¢91¢2¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

7d ago

$2,300 on No at 61¢

61¢91¢30¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

14d ago

$3,783 on No at 61¢

61¢91¢30¢

Related Theses