Part of: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $102,878.
Categories: Geopolitics, Iran, Oil, Politics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Five-wallet coordinated Yes rotation
Five wallets collectively sold $33,910 of No at 84–86¢, creating a notable coordinated Yes position at just 14–16¢ despite the market's deep liquidity.
- Five wallets collectively rotated $33,910 out of No, equivalent to buying Yes around 14–16¢.
- The market still prices Yes at only 16%, so the coordinated flow represents a concentrated contrarian position.
- One participant has won 92% of 388 resolved trades, although the broader cluster includes mixed track records.
$33,910 on Yes
Six-wallet cluster scaling into No
A proven bettor is adding $10.5K to No within a six-wallet funded cluster, creating a strong coordinated signal despite the market's high liquidity.
- Six wallets sharing a funder have committed $10,546 to No, signaling coordinated conviction.
- This bettor has won 86% of 181 resolved trades and is up $6,342 lifetime.
- The wallet is adding to an existing No position after previously closing another No position profitably.
$10,546 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 255 resolved trades and earned $180,625 in profit.
- They added $3,000 to an existing No position while 19 linked wallets have bet the same way.
- No is available near 88¢, implying the trader assigns roughly 88% probability that traffic will not return to normal by August 31.
$2,175 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp bettor scales into 19-wallet No cluster
A highly profitable 94% win-rate trader added $3,000 to an existing No position alongside a 19-wallet funded cluster.
- This bettor has won 94% of 255 resolved trades and earned $180,625 in profit.
- They added $3,000 to an existing No position while 19 linked wallets have bet the same way.
- No is available near 88¢, implying the trader assigns roughly 88% probability that traffic will not return to normal by August 31.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable traders turning bearish
Three highly experienced, profitable traders coordinated to sell Yes while holding large Yes positions, creating a meaningful bearish signal for this binary market.
- Three traders sold $13,799 of Yes, equivalent to buying No around 87¢–88¢.
- The wallets have 147–985 resolved bets each and combined lifetime profits of roughly $893,000.
- Two traders are reducing large open Yes positions bought at 13¢–17¢, suggesting continued bearish positioning rather than a fresh speculative entry.
$13,799 on No
Sharp bettor doubles down on No
A proven 84% bettor with a substantial positive edge is adding $11.1K to No through both a direct purchase and a converted Yes sale.
- This bettor has won 84% of 38 resolved trades and earned $102,511 in profit.
- They committed $11,129 to No at 85¢, including adding to an existing No position.
- The trader has positioned across 29 events and 46 markets, suggesting a seasoned directional thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$11,129 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
- They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
- Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.
$12,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Serial bettor adding No
A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding a $10.2k No bet to an existing position amid a sharp volume spike and momentum toward No.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $41.6k lifetime.
- They added $10.2k to an existing No position, bringing invested size on this market above $24k.
- Market volume spiked 86x, while odds have moved further toward No over the past week.
$10,235 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.
$2,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
92% winner buys No
Sharp-wallet override: a 92% winner with positive lifetime P&L is buying No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $13.6k lifetime.
- They have been flagged 17 times before, suggesting a repeated pattern rather than a one-off bet.
- A $3.8k No buy at 61¢ implies they see normalization by August 31 as overpriced.
$3,783 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
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