Part of: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether there will be a continuous 14-day period before August 31, 2026 in which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran. PolySpotter is tracking $1,907 in smart money activity, with recent signals pointing to linked wallets and cross-market buyers purchasing NO positions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,745.
Categories: Iran, ceasefire, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor has traded across 85 markets and is up about $253K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position, bringing about $9.9K invested at a 46¢ average entry.
- The latest buy was over half of recent detected volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
$1,907 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor has traded across 85 markets and is up about $253K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position, bringing about $9.9K invested at a 46¢ average entry.
- The latest buy was over half of recent detected volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
$1,920 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Linked cluster buying NO
Surfacing because a profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to NO alongside a 4-wallet linked cluster buying the same side.
- Four linked wallets are all buying No, totaling $14.3K in the same direction.
- The lead wallet is a large experienced trader: 956 resolved bets, 61% wins, and $385K profit.
- This wallet is adding to an existing No position at 46¢, showing continued conviction.
$1,399 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
Linked wallets buying NO
Coordinated No buying by three wallets, including linked funding and two large profitable serial cross-market traders, makes this geopolitical position worth surfacing.
- Three wallets bought $8.9K of No within 13 minutes, with two wallets sharing a funder.
- Two of the bettors are large serial cross-market traders with profitable histories and hundreds of resolved markets.
- Two wallets were already holding No and added more around 44–46¢, signaling increased conviction.
$8,598 on No
Serial cross-market No buyer
Experienced high-volume cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position on a geopolitics market, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor has traded across 85 markets and is up about $253K lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing No position, bringing about $9.9K invested at a 46¢ average entry.
- The latest buy was over half of recent detected volume, showing conviction in a relatively quiet market.
$2,921 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x62cf...5826 — Yes, $27,265 (64% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $25,000 (47% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $24,503 (70% win rate)
- 0x7726...4aee — No, $8,623 (43% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — No, $7,689 (61% win rate)
- 0x7818...d185 — No, $5,378 (63% win rate)
- 0xd67b...5780 — Yes, $5,000 (44% win rate)
- 0xa639...a48f — Yes, $3,704 (98% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $2,875 (70% win rate)
- 0xefce...4e4a — No, $2,606 (50% win rate)
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