Part of: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,383.
Categories: Iran, US-Iran, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable new wallet buys Yes
A four-day-old wallet with eight positions and positive early P&L made a concentrated $2.1K bet favoring Yes, though its limited track record is only moderately compelling.
- This four-day-old wallet has already made eight bets and is up $264 on $3,184 invested.
- It concentrated $2,121 into the Yes side through two No sells, implying conviction despite only six resolved bets.
- The 67% win rate is encouraging but still based on a small sample and does not establish a proven edge.
$2,121 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Serial cross-market trader adds to Yes
A highly active serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position, though their 72% win rate does not clearly show edge at an average 87% winning entry price.
- This bettor has traded 217 markets across 127 events, with $9.1M in total volume.
- They added $1,262 to an existing Yes position at 53¢, signaling increased conviction while Yes trades near 55¢.
- The 72% win rate is notable, but below the bettor’s 87¢ average winning entry price, so the edge is not clearly proven.
$1,262 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Top Holders
- 0x0761...ad5c — Outcome 97783373, $10,000
- 0xbbe3...5b92 — Outcome 97783373, $10,000
- 0x524d...4495 — Outcome 97783373, $6,377 (80% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 97783373, $4,000 (49% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 97783373, $2,075
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 97783373, $1,600 (60% win rate)
- 0xf27d...e6d3 — Outcome 97783373, $1,387 (24% win rate)
- 0xee67...67a6 — Outcome 97783373, $1,153
- 0x268d...4820 — Outcome 97783373, $1,000
- 0x8b72...6dbe — Outcome 97783373, $777 (50% win rate)
Related Theses
Trump lifts Hormuz blockade
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Iran deal likely soon
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Ceasefire holds through August, then collapses
Covers 10 related markets
Iranian blockade ends in October
Covers 9 related markets
Fed holds rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Fed will hold rates steady
Covers 2 related markets
Iran closes airspace late June
Covers 7 related markets
