Part of: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,383.

Categories: Iran, US-Iran, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable new wallet buys Yes

A four-day-old wallet with eight positions and positive early P&L made a concentrated $2.1K bet favoring Yes, though its limited track record is only moderately compelling.

  • This four-day-old wallet has already made eight bets and is up $264 on $3,184 invested.
  • It concentrated $2,121 into the Yes side through two No sells, implying conviction despite only six resolved bets.
  • The 67% win rate is encouraging but still based on a small sample and does not establish a proven edge.

$2,121 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Serial cross-market trader adds to Yes

A highly active serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position, though their 72% win rate does not clearly show edge at an average 87% winning entry price.

  • This bettor has traded 217 markets across 127 events, with $9.1M in total volume.
  • They added $1,262 to an existing Yes position at 53¢, signaling increased conviction while Yes trades near 55¢.
  • The 72% win rate is notable, but below the bettor’s 87¢ average winning entry price, so the edge is not clearly proven.

$1,262 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0761...ad5c Outcome 97783373, $10,000
  2. 0xbbe3...5b92 Outcome 97783373, $10,000
  3. 0x524d...4495 Outcome 97783373, $6,377 (80% win rate)
  4. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 97783373, $4,000 (49% win rate)
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 97783373, $2,075
  6. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 97783373, $1,600 (60% win rate)
  7. 0xf27d...e6d3 Outcome 97783373, $1,387 (24% win rate)
  8. 0xee67...67a6 Outcome 97783373, $1,153
  9. 0x268d...4820 Outcome 97783373, $1,000
  10. 0x8b72...6dbe Outcome 97783373, $777 (50% win rate)

Related Theses

Trump lifts Hormuz blockade

Covers 5 related markets

Iran deal likely soon

Covers 10 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Ceasefire holds through August, then collapses

Covers 10 related markets

Iranian blockade ends in October

Covers 9 related markets

Fed holds rates steady

Covers 2 related markets

Fed will hold rates steady

Covers 2 related markets

Iran closes airspace late June

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?

ResolvedUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?$3,383 tracked2 signalsIranUS-IranPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “Yes
69¢
52¢
34¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?

62d ago

$2,121 on Yes at 57¢

US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?

64d ago

$1,262 on Yes at 53¢

Related Theses