Part of: Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
This prediction market asks whether Israel will initiate a major closure of its civilian airspace by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It covers broad commercial aviation closures, cancellations, or suspensions across all or most Israeli civilian airspace, including flights arriving, departing, or transiting. PolySpotter tracks $5,848 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal, including recent sharp interest around the No side.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24 smart money signals detected, totaling $96,380.
Categories: Iran, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable cluster fading spike
Four wallets, including profitable high-volume bettors, are jointly fading the recent Yes surge by buying No around 63–65¢.
- Four wallets put $8.0K on No within minutes, all taking the same side after a sharp Yes rally.
- One bettor is up $295K lifetime with 71% wins, and another is up $1.18M across heavy trading volume.
- Entry around 63¢ means they are betting the market has overreacted to the airspace-closure risk.
$8,018 on No
Profitable cluster fading spike
A cluster of five wallets, including several profitable high-volume bettors, is fading the sharp Yes spike by taking the No side on a geopolitical market.
- Five wallets put about $8K on No after Yes surged more than 40 points in a day.
- Several bettors have strong records, including one up $289K lifetime and another up $248K.
- This is a timely geopolitical market where coordinated positioning can reflect fast-moving information.
$7,958 on No
1-day wallet, $39K repeat
A 1-day-old wallet with $39.6K in repeat flagged bets bought Yes effectively at 49¢ amid a 36.7x volume spike and a sharp market repricing.
- A brand-new wallet is repeatedly betting big, with $39.6K total flagged across 7 alerts.
- This trade effectively bought Yes at 49¢ before the market moved to 66¢.
- Volume is 36.7x normal and Yes is up 54 points in 24 hours, suggesting strong momentum.
$3,178 on Yes
Serial trader leads Yes surge
High-scoring coordinated Yes flow with a 78x volume spike, major price breakout, and a profitable serial cross-market trader makes this worth surfacing.
- A serial cross-market bettor with 72% wins and $287,893 profit is part of this Yes push.
- Three wallets put $16,332 on Yes while market volume spiked 78x above normal.
- The price has broken sharply higher, moving from a prior 12–33¢ range to the mid-60s.
$16,332 on Yes
84% winner trimming NO
A high-win-rate wallet is reducing No exposure across related markets, making this a modest but followable Yes signal despite possible profit-taking.
- This bettor has won 84% of 375 resolved trades and is up about $20k lifetime.
- They are active across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling No at 85¢ converts to a Yes entry around 15¢, a low-priced upside bet.
$1,104 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Cross-market No bettor
Surfaced because this is part of a sizable 3-market geopolitical thesis from a wallet with a 77% resolved win rate, despite negative lifetime P&L.
- This wallet is betting a broader thesis across 3 related markets, with $63.7k positioned in the same event.
- The bettor has won 77% of 30 resolved markets, though lifetime P&L is still negative.
- This $8.4k buy on No aligns with recent market drift, with Yes odds down over the past day and week.
$8,398 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Cross-market geopolitical bettor
A 77%-win-rate wallet is extending a $61.8k cross-market thesis, though its negative lifetime P&L makes this a weaker copy signal than a proven profitable sharp.
- This wallet has won 77% of its resolved bets across 30 markets.
- It has put $61.8k across 3 related markets, pointing to a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The trade backs the 88¢ favorite, so the upside is limited but the position size shows conviction.
$6,529 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Profitable 87% winner
Sharp-wallet override: this bettor has a strong 415-bet track record and positive lifetime P&L, making the small Yes buy worth surfacing despite a low composite score.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up about $178K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 17¢, above the current 16¢ market, suggesting a fresh view on Israel airspace closure risk.
- The track record is the main signal here; the trade size is modest and the market is fairly liquid.
$1,200 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
88% cross-market sharp
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with an 88% win rate is buying No on a geopolitical market as part of a broader same-event position.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $709k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.8M deployed across 74 markets and 39 events.
- This No buy is part of a broader $24k position across 4 related markets.
$1,387 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
Cross-market No thesis
High composite cross-market signal: a 77% win-rate wallet is expressing a broader No-side thesis across multiple related markets, though lifetime P&L is negative.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is taking the same view across several related markets.
- The wallet has $58K positioned across 3 markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought No at 88¢ while the market is pricing No around 86%, with about four weeks until resolution.
$2,911 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Top Holders
- 0xeb49...693e — No, $104,543 (77% win rate)
- 0xcb4c...6d64 — Yes, $64,773 (24% win rate)
- 0x9592...a7b8 — Yes, $55,000 (95% win rate)
- 0xd104...acef — No, $53,217
- 0xe36f...cd91 — No, $40,000 (92% win rate)
- 0x6418...730c — Yes, $22,410 (62% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Yes, $20,174 (87% win rate)
- 0x86e9...4cdf — Yes, $11,537 (97% win rate)
- 0x2974...9c23 — No, $11,491 (88% win rate)
- 0xdc41...362b — No, $9,505 (100% win rate)
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