Part of: Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Nicolás Maduro will officially be Venezuela’s head of state on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. It resolves based on official appointment, confirmation, swearing-in, or government information, with live Polymarket odds and smart money activity tracked on this page.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $98,279.
Categories: Trump-Machado, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, Venezuela, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, maduro, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Proven political trader backs Maduro exit
A highly experienced political-market trader with 1,115 resolved bets and a strong record sold Yes, signaling a position against Maduro remaining leader.
- This bettor has won 77% of 1,115 resolved bets and earned over $2.1M.
- They sold Yes at 71¢, equivalent to buying No at about 29¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events and 37 markets, showing a broad track record.
$1,764 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Seven-wallet cluster betting against Maduro
Seven linked wallets have deployed about $9,145 around this market, and the alerted trader’s $3,077 sale of Yes is a bearish position equivalent to buying No at 30¢.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with about $9,145 in linked activity—a meaningful coordinated signal.
- The trader sold Yes at 70¢, equivalent to buying No at 30¢.
- The trader has a 66% win rate across 285 resolved bets, though that record alone does not show a clear edge at their average winning price.
$3,077 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Proven political trader backs Maduro exit
A highly experienced political-market trader with 1,115 resolved bets and a strong record sold Yes, signaling a position against Maduro remaining leader.
- This bettor has won 77% of 1,115 resolved bets and earned over $2.1M.
- They sold Yes at 71¢, equivalent to buying No at about 29¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events and 37 markets, showing a broad track record.
$1,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Seven-wallet cluster; serial trader buys Yes
A $2,417 Yes buy is notable because the wallet belongs to a seven-wallet shared-funder cluster, though its track record does not establish a clear edge.
- The trader is linked by a shared funder to a seven-wallet group with $17,241 in activity.
- This wallet has traded across 68 events and 110 markets, but its 65% win rate is not clearly strong relative to its average winning entry price of 86¢.
- The wallet opened a $2,418 Yes position at 66¢ after previously closing its No position.
$2,418 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Serial bettor scales into Yes
A highly active bettor with a strong 83% win rate added $9,335 to an already large Yes position in a relatively quiet market, though the historical odds suggest only modest proven edge.
- This bettor has won 83% of 325 resolved trades and is up $310,000 lifetime.
- The $9,335 purchase was nearly nine times the market’s 24-hour volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
- It adds to an existing $54,752 Yes position entered around 44¢, showing sustained rather than one-off conviction.
$9,335 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp bettor fades Maduro Yes
A highly experienced bettor with a 77% win rate and substantial edge is taking a $1,771 position against the heavily favored Yes outcome.
- This bettor has won 77% of 1,114 resolved trades and is up over $2 million.
- The $1,771 sale of Yes at 82¢ converts to a fresh bet on No at roughly 18¢.
- The wallet has traded across 25 events and 37 markets, indicating broad and repeatable experience rather than a one-off position.
$1,771 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial cross-market winner
A seasoned serial cross-market trader with a 70% resolved win rate and positive P&L bought $7.5k of Yes, a meaningful share of recent volume.
- This bettor has won 70% of 257 resolved trades and is up $21k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 52 events, suggesting an experienced political/event bettor.
- The $7.5k Yes buy was about 51% of the market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction at 81¢.
$7,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
91% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 91% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought Yes at 80¢ on a long-dated Venezuela leadership market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $25.6K lifetime.
- They have traded across 25 events and 29 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 80¢ implies they are backing Maduro to remain leader through end-2026 despite the long time horizon.
$1,064 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable veteran buying Yes
A long-track-record profitable wallet bought $5.7k of Yes in a political market, with the trade large relative to recent 24h volume despite only a weak low-activity signal.
- This bettor has won 78% of 907 resolved bets and is up about $90.8k lifetime.
- The $5.7k Yes buy was about 70% of the market’s recent 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction.
- The market has already moved toward Yes over the past week, up 6.4 percentage points.
$5,716 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a massive track record bought $5.7k of Yes at 80¢ on a relatively quiet political market.
- This bettor has won 69% of 36,692 resolved bets and is up $408k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 507 events, with $2.3M total flagged activity.
- This $5.7k buy was over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction at 80¢.
$5,661 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
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