Part of: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

20 smart money signals detected, totaling $139,996.

Categories: Israel Election, Geopolitics, Iran, Israel, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor-led No cluster

Three wallets, including a highly profitable 94% winner, sold Yes together at 85–87¢ despite the market rising to 94%, creating a notable contrarian No signal though prior positions suggest profit-taking.

  • Three wallets sold $6,818 of Yes at 85–87¢, implying a coordinated buy-No view around 13–15¢.
  • One bettor wins 94% of 257 resolved trades and is up $175,865 lifetime.
  • All three had previously held Yes, so some of this move may be profit-taking rather than entirely new No conviction.

$6,818 on No

Serial trader scales into Yes

A proven serial cross-market trader is adding $40.4K to an already $79.9K Yes position, with the market subsequently rising from roughly 90% to 94%.

  • This bettor has won 65% of 213 resolved trades and is up $117,451 lifetime.
  • They added $40,385 to Yes at 88–90% while already holding $79,891, showing strong conviction in continued ceasefire.
  • The market moved from about 90% to 94% after the purchases, though the high current price leaves limited upside.

$40,385 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

94% winner adds to Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a Yes position at 56¢ while belonging to a 19-wallet funded cluster.

  • This bettor has won 94% of 250 resolved trades and earned $173,441 in profit.
  • The wallet is adding to Yes at 56¢ despite already holding $3,380, signaling continued conviction.
  • It belongs to a 19-wallet cluster sharing a common funder and has traded across 51 events.

$2,882 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%

Serial event trader scaling Yes

A serial cross-market trader with a meaningful long-term record is adding nearly $20,000 to an existing Yes position across six related markets.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 211 resolved trades and is up $113,000 lifetime.
  • They added nearly $20,000 to Yes while already holding $24,700, signaling increased conviction.
  • The wallet has positioned across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with nearly $99,000 committed.

$10,920 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢, showing increased conviction despite the market already pricing an 80% chance.

  • This bettor is up $103,435 lifetime across 208 resolved bets, with a 64% win rate.
  • The wallet has traded 56 events and is positioning across four markets tied to this event.
  • This is an increase to an existing Yes position, with $1,317 added at 79¢ as odds move higher.

$1,577 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable serial trader adds to Yes

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 79¢, showing increased conviction despite the market already pricing an 80% chance.

  • This bettor is up $103,435 lifetime across 208 resolved bets, with a 64% win rate.
  • The wallet has traded 56 events and is positioning across four markets tied to this event.
  • This is an increase to an existing Yes position, with $1,317 added at 79¢ as odds move higher.

$8,063 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Serial event trader scaling Yes

A serial cross-market trader with a meaningful long-term record is adding nearly $20,000 to an existing Yes position across six related markets.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 211 resolved trades and is up $113,000 lifetime.
  • They added nearly $20,000 to Yes while already holding $24,700, signaling increased conviction.
  • The wallet has positioned across six markets in this Israel-Iran event, with nearly $99,000 committed.

$19,824 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

Six linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support this Yes bet, though the individual wallet's 67% record is not independently sharp at its high average win price.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The linked trader group has placed $131,733 across 11 markets in the same event.
  • The individual wallet is up $96,627 lifetime, but its 67% win rate is less compelling because winning bets average 92¢.

$2,506 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Six-wallet ceasefire cluster

Six linked wallets and substantial same-event positioning support this Yes bet, though the individual wallet's 67% record is not independently sharp at its high average win price.

  • Six wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, indicating coordinated conviction.
  • The linked trader group has placed $131,733 across 11 markets in the same event.
  • The individual wallet is up $96,627 lifetime, but its 67% win rate is less compelling because winning bets average 92¢.

$1,860 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%

Experienced serial trader buys Yes

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader made a fresh $5.4K Yes purchase at 68¢ while holding a 75% win rate across 345 resolved bets.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 345 resolved trades and earned $694,207 in P&L.
  • They placed a fresh $5,406 bet on Yes at 68¢, now marked around 70¢.
  • The wallet has traded seven markets tied to this event, totaling about $30,000, signaling concentrated attention.

$1,190 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9592...a7b8 Outcome 54486775, $86,767 (76% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 54486775, $80,313 (73% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 54486775, $33,865 (52% win rate)
  4. 0xaacb...90cb Outcome 54486775, $18,547 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x9d84...1344 Outcome 54486775, $12,610 (43% win rate)
  6. 0x5f40...05bc Outcome 54486775, $10,000
  7. 0x8db0...8df7 Outcome 54486775, $8,468
  8. 0x758c...074a Outcome 54486775, $6,260 (14% win rate)
  9. 0xd08e...2f7c Outcome 54486775, $5,835 (33% win rate)
  10. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 54486775, $5,265 (28% win rate)

Related Theses

World Cup favorites prevail

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Calendar arbitrage on talks

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Iran closes airspace mid-May

Covers 8 related markets

Iran deal by mid-June

Covers 13 related markets

Iran peace deal won’t happen

Covers 12 related markets

Hormuz blockade persists

Covers 9 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

WTI stays between $90 and $105

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 11 related markets

Crude oil market arbitrage

Covers 11 related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

ResolvedIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?$139,996 tracked20 signalsIsrael ElectionGeopoliticsIranIsraelIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
97¢
92¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$6,818 on No at 14¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$40,385 on Yes at 90¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$2,882 on Yes at 56¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$10,920 on Yes at 90¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$1,577 on Yes at 79¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

38d ago

$8,063 on Yes at 79¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

39d ago

$19,824 on Yes at 90¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

39d ago

$2,506 on Yes at 65¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

39d ago

$1,860 on Yes at 65¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$1,190 on Yes at 68¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$4,223 on Yes at 65¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$3,304 on Yes at 86¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$15,157 on Yes at 86¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$5,406 on Yes at 68¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$1,583 on Yes at 65¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

40d ago

$1,906 on Yes at 56¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

41d ago

$2,411 on Yes at 74¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

43d ago

$1,317 on Yes at 79¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

43d ago

$1,634 on Yes at 74¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

45d ago

$7,031 on Yes at 77¢

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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Crude oil market arbitrage
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