What needs to happen for this crude oil market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if the CME Group’s official daily high for the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract is greater than $147.27 on any trading day after market creation and by the final trading day on or before September 30, 2026.

What price level counts as a new all-time high for this market?

The threshold is $147.27. The official daily high for front-month CME Crude Oil futures must be above that level for the Yes outcome to win.

When does the crude oil all-time high prediction market resolve?

The market resolves after the relevant final trading day on or before September 30, 2026, based on the official CME Group daily high price data.

What are smart money traders signaling on this oil market?

PolySpotter has tracked $1,162 in smart money activity and one recent signal. The latest alerts indicate a high-win-rate wallet and sharp trader activity buying No, suggesting skepticism that crude oil will exceed $147.27 by the deadline.

Why could geopolitics affect this crude oil prediction market?

Oil prices can react sharply to supply disruptions, OPEC policy, sanctions, wars, and tensions involving major producers or transit routes. Events tied to Iran or the broader Middle East could influence whether crude oil approaches the all-time-high threshold.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

This prediction market asks whether the CME front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures official daily high will exceed $147.27 on any trading day before the final trading day on or before September 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $1,162 in smart money activity, with the latest highlighted signal showing a high-win-rate wallet buying “No.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,443.

Categories: Geopolitics, Commodities, Oil, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

Sharp wallet flips oil stance

Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$482.6k lifetime P&L sold No, effectively leaning toward Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482.6k lifetime.
They sold No at 81¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 19¢.
The trade exits a prior No position at a small loss, suggesting a notable shift away from the bearish side.

$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$478k P&L bought $4k of No on a relatively quiet crude-oil market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $478k lifetime.
They bought $4k of No, adding again after an earlier 75¢ fill moved toward 82¢.
The bet is meaningful for a quiet market with about $10k traded in the last day.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

87% winner buys No

Surfaced because a highly profitable 87% lifetime winner is buying No, despite the alert being only a modest two-market cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $478K lifetime.
They put $2K on No at 84¢, matching their history of profitable high-confidence favorite bets.
They have $4K positioned across 2 related markets in the same event.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$707k P&L bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
They have traded across 38 events and 70 markets with $1.77M in tracked cross-market volume.
Buying No at 79¢ suggests confidence that crude oil will not break its $147.27 all-time high by September 2026.

$1,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%