What does this crude oil prediction market cover?

It covers whether the official daily high for the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract exceeds $147.27 on any trading day after market creation and on or before September 30, 2026.

What price does crude oil need to reach for this market to resolve Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if front-month CME Crude Oil futures publish an official daily high greater than $147.27, which would mark a new all-time high under the market’s rules.

When does the crude oil all-time high market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the final eligible trading day on or before September 30, 2026, using CME Group’s official daily high data.

What are smart money traders signaling on this market?

PolySpotter is tracking $3,214 in smart money activity across 1 signal, and recent alert headlines indicate sharp or high-win-rate wallets have been buying “No.”

Why is this market relevant to oil, geopolitics, and finance?

Crude oil prices can be driven by supply shocks, OPEC policy, geopolitical conflict, sanctions, demand expectations, and inflation concerns, making this market a way to track expectations for an extreme oil price move.

Part of: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

This Polymarket market asks whether the active-month CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contract will set a new all-time high above $147.27 on any trading day by September 30, 2026. Current smart money tracking shows $3,214 across 1 signal, with recent sharp activity leaning toward “No.” The market resolves based on the official daily high price published by CME Group for front-month crude oil futures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,177.

Categories: Geopolitics, Commodities, Oil, Finance, Iran

Notable Trades

90% winner buys NO

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought $3.2k of No despite only a weak low-activity signal.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $105k lifetime.
They bought $3.2k of No at 90¢, a sizable trade equal to about 63% of recent market volume.
The bet backs crude oil not making a new all-time high by September 30, 2026.

$3,214 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

89% winner buying No

A highly profitable 89% winner is making a fresh $2.5k No bet on a quiet oil market despite only a weak low-activity signal firing.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $35k lifetime.
They bought $2.5k of No at 90¢, a meaningful trade in a market with only about $5k of 24h volume.
This is a fresh No position after previously closing a smaller stake on the same side.

$2,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

Sharp wallet flips oil stance

Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$482.6k lifetime P&L sold No, effectively leaning toward Yes despite only a modest cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $482.6k lifetime.
They sold No at 81¢, equivalent to buying Yes around 19¢.
The trade exits a prior No position at a small loss, suggesting a notable shift away from the bearish side.

$1,162 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buying NO

Sharp wallet with 87% win rate and +$478k P&L bought $4k of No on a relatively quiet crude-oil market.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved bets and is up $478k lifetime.
They bought $4k of No, adding again after an earlier 75¢ fill moved toward 82¢.
The bet is meaningful for a quiet market with about $10k traded in the last day.

$4,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

87% winner buys No

Surfaced because a highly profitable 87% lifetime winner is buying No, despite the alert being only a modest two-market cross-market signal.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $478K lifetime.
They put $2K on No at 84¢, matching their history of profitable high-confidence favorite bets.
They have $4K positioned across 2 related markets in the same event.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Elite cross-market sharp

Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% resolved win rate and +$707k P&L bought No on crude oil reaching a new all-time high.

This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $707k lifetime.
They have traded across 38 events and 70 markets with $1.77M in tracked cross-market volume.
Buying No at 79¢ suggests confidence that crude oil will not break its $147.27 all-time high by September 2026.

$1,281 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%