US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if an authorized, official meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. Traders are using this market to price the chances of a formal US-Iran diplomatic opening amid broader geopolitical tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,179.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Sharp trader flipped to No

A high-volume, profitable cross-market trader flipped from a prior Yes position to buy No at 49¢ before the market collapsed to 22¢, showing strong directional timing on a news-sensitive geopolitical market.

  • This bettor has a strong long-run record: 67% win rate across 1,287 resolved markets and $222k profit
  • They bought No at 49¢ and the market is now 22¢, a fast move that already put this trade deep in the money
  • This was a fresh bearish turn after closing an earlier Yes position, showing a clear change of view rather than routine profit-taking

$1,477 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Repeat new wallet bullish

A very new wallet that has already made seven notable bets sold No here, which converts to a bullish Yes buy around 78¢; the repeated activity and aggressive positioning into a fast price move make it worth watching despite the small sample on results.

  • This 5-day-old wallet has already triggered 7 large-bet alerts across $23k of trading
  • The trade effectively buys Yes at 78¢ by selling No, showing strong conviction against a fast 16-point move
  • The market is active and moved sharply today, so this looks more like a thesis-driven position than a random punt

$2,046 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

86% win-rate event trader

A highly profitable 86% win-rate trader is buying Yes at 44¢, and their long history of successful cross-market event trading makes this a copy-worthy signal despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 86% of their trades and is up about $392k across 184 resolved markets
  • They have traded 58 related markets across 32 events, suggesting a repeatable edge on event-driven news markets
  • Bought Yes at 44¢ while the market is moving higher, implying they still see value below roughly 48¢

$1,319 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable new wallet adds No

A new but already profitable wallet made another sizable bet on No as the market moved sharply that way, suggesting fresh conviction on a serious geopolitical market.

  • This 12-day-old wallet has already made 8 positions and is up $13.6k
  • They bought No at 56¢ as the market dropped 16.5 points in under 3 minutes
  • The bet is on a real geopolitical market with solid volume, so this looks more like directional conviction than random activity

$2,299 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Sharp wallet flips to No

A sharp 92% win-rate wallet flipped out of an earlier Yes position and joined a 3-wallet move into No as the market dropped fast, creating a notable bearish cluster worth watching.

  • One bettor wins 92% of their trades and joined this move after closing an earlier Yes position.
  • Three wallets piled into No for $5.6k in minutes while the market moved about 16.5 points.
  • Two wallets exited older Yes bets entered at 72¢ and 77¢, suggesting a real thesis change rather than routine buying.

$5,571 on No

93% win-rate macro bettor

A highly proven wallet with a 93% win rate is making a fresh cross-market geopolitical bet despite buying after a sharp move, making it worth surfacing mainly for the bettor’s exceptional track record.

  • This bettor wins 93% of their trades with 809 resolved positions and is up about $52.7k
  • They have been betting across 5 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
  • They paid 82¢ for Yes even after a big run, showing conviction in a market that has already moved sharply

$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

74% winner flips bearish

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% win rate is flipping bearish on this geopolitics market by selling Yes at 41¢, effectively buying No at 59¢ after a sharp 1-day collapse.

  • This bettor has won 235 of 317 resolved markets and is up about $225k overall
  • The trade was a sell of Yes at 41¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 59¢
  • The market already dropped 34 points in a day, and this bettor trades across 104 related markets with size

$1,967 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%

Top Holders

  1. 0x162f...798d Yes, $18,858 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x7494...680d Yes, $15,583 (93% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $11,869 (86% win rate)
  4. 0x4478...02a4 Yes, $8,000 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x90bf...3348 Yes, $7,010
  6. 0x5108...29cb No, $6,168 (50% win rate)
  7. 0xe738...df65 No, $6,113 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x5ee9...2673 No, $5,572 (75% win rate)
  9. 0x6d9f...9790 No, $5,385 (62% win rate)
  10. 0x97a6...2190 No, $4,994 (0% win rate)

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

13h$16,179 tracked7 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
57¢
No
43¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
89¢
57¢
25¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

3h ago

$1,477 on No at 49¢

49¢43¢6¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

3h ago

$2,046 on Yes at 78¢

78¢57¢21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

5h ago

$1,319 on Yes at 44¢

44¢57¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

10h ago

$2,299 on No at 56¢

56¢43¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

17h ago

$5,571 on No at 43¢

43¢43¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

19h ago

$1,500 on Yes at 82¢

82¢57¢25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

1d ago

$1,967 on No at 59¢

59¢43¢16¢

Related Theses

US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Odds on Polymarket | PolySpotter