US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
763 signals across 24 markets · $3,393,769 tracked · resolves Apr 30, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a diplomatic meeting by a range of dates in April and May 2026. Traders are pricing multiple deadlines, from April 18 through May 15, with PolySpotter tracking $1.79M in smart money activity and 367 signals across the event.

Markets (24)
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?139 signals · $809,199 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?187 signals · $625,390 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?60 signals · $471,669 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?80 signals · $242,152 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?57 signals · $158,726 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?22 signals · $146,162 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?21 signals · $130,962 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?37 signals · $130,507 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?21 signals · $112,325 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?19 signals · $108,155 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?25 signals · $89,341 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?10 signals · $76,608 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?19 signals · $67,682 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?22 signals · $61,969 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?10 signals · $59,757 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?6 signals · $21,975 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? 5 signals · $16,551 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?4 signals · $14,820 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?5 signals · $13,774 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?3 signals · $12,619 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?4 signals · $9,783 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?2 signals · $5,430 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?2 signals · $4,158 tracked
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?3 signals · $4,055 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 17-wallet funded Yes cluster
Large coordinated Yes flow from 11 wallets, including a recurring funded cluster and several highly profitable traders, makes this worth surfacing despite the market being liquid and price slightly below entries.
$51,924Score: 56.5 - 16-wallet No cluster
A large 16-wallet one-sided cluster piled into No across multiple related Iran-event markets, driving a sharp price move and including several profitable or high-win-rate wallets.
$69,664Score: 43.6 - Coordinated sharp Yes cluster
Five wallets, including profitable high-volume political traders, bought Yes together as the market surged sharply on US-Iran meeting odds.
$12,757Score: 38.0 - 9-wallet No cluster
A 9-wallet coordinated push into No around 45-47¢ includes several highly profitable cross-market traders and new-wallet size, making this a strong copy-trade signal despite mixed flow on both sides.
$24,567Score: 35.5 - 6-wallet contrarian cluster
Six wallets simultaneously sold No, which translates to coordinated buying of Yes around 11-30¢ after a major 1-day collapse to 6%, creating a notable clustered contrarian bet on a real geopolitical market.
$15,254Score: 32.1 - 19-wallet funded cluster
A large linked-wallet cluster with profitable cross-market history just piled into No across several related US-Iran markets, helping drive a sharp price move in a liquid news-sensitive market.
$7,181Score: 28.2 - 7-wallet geopolitical pile-in
Seven experienced wallets piled into No at the same time and helped push the market sharply to 71%, making this coordinated geopolitical flow worth watching despite the market already moving fast.
$18,071Score: 26.3 - 8-wallet No cluster
Strong No cluster: 8 wallets including profitable high-volume traders bought $30k into a major US-Iran market, alongside a 12x volume spike and sharp price move against Yes.
$30,184Score: 26.2 - 19-wallet thesis cluster
A large linked-wallet cluster with a strong history across 83 events is rotating into No together at 47-52¢ on a politically relevant market, signaling coordinated conviction rather than random flow.
$8,025Score: 25.1 - Sharp cross-market cluster
Three profitable, highly active geopolitical traders bought Yes together, led by a 75% winner with $271k lifetime profit and heavy cross-market positioning.
$4,427Score: 21.9
Top wallets in this event
- 0xf39651…ed0d$405,726 · 6 markets · 35 alerts · 92% wins
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$312,304 · 5 markets · 40 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xeed588…1a33$234,599 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 93% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$233,143 · 16 markets · 120 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$218,721 · 4 markets · 37 alerts · 70% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$131,413 · 10 markets · 49 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x5969ad…5bed$113,926 · 9 markets · 39 alerts · 91% wins
- 0xbf4d20…33ed$108,458 · 8 markets · 38 alerts · 79% wins
- 0xa7715a…42d1$56,508 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 73% wins
- 0xab6537…5cac$45,627 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 100% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting?
This event includes separate Polymarket markets for different deadlines, so the odds can vary by date. PolySpotter aggregates the event-level activity and highlights how traders are positioning across the full set of US-Iran meeting markets.
What is smart money doing on the US-Iran meeting markets?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show multiple No-side clusters, including 16-wallet and 9-wallet No clusters, alongside a 6-wallet contrarian cluster and a 7-wallet geopolitical pile-in. That suggests sophisticated traders are actively debating whether diplomacy happens before the listed deadlines.
What counts as a diplomatic meeting for this market?
A qualifying meeting must involve authorized US and Iranian representatives acting in an official capacity to engage in negotiation or diplomacy about US-Iran relations. Indirect or unofficial contact may not qualify under the market rules.
When do these US-Iran diplomatic meeting markets resolve?
The child markets resolve based on their individual deadlines, ranging from April 18, 2026 to May 15, 2026. The event’s listed resolution window runs through April 30, 2026, with later child markets resolving according to their own terms.
Why track this event on PolySpotter instead of only Polymarket?
Polymarket shows the live market prices, while PolySpotter adds smart money context such as funded wallet clusters, coordinated No-side activity, and contrarian trading signals across all related US-Iran diplomatic meeting markets.