Part of: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $50,143.

Categories: Global Elections, World, Elections, World Elections, Politics, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany, German Elections, Main Election

Notable Trades

Sharp bettor scales into Yes

A highly successful bettor with a 92% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing Yes position after a sharp price decline.

This bettor has won 92% of 396 resolved positions and is up $1.72 million.
They added $9,826 to Yes at 52¢ despite the market falling 24% in one day.
The new purchase increases an existing $34,033 Yes position, signaling continued conviction rather than a routine exit.

$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Serial sharp bettor buys No

A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is making a fresh $6,921 bet on No after closing a prior Yes position.

This bettor has won 82% of 294 resolved trades and is up $1.51 million.
The wallet is taking a fresh $6,921 No position at 53¢ after closing its earlier Yes position.
The 98-event cross-market track record suggests this is a researched directional view, not a routine small trade.

$6,921 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp bettor scales into Yes

A highly successful bettor with a 92% win rate and substantial proven edge is adding nearly $10,000 to an existing Yes position after a sharp price decline.

This bettor has won 92% of 396 resolved positions and is up $1.72 million.
They added $9,826 to Yes at 52¢ despite the market falling 24% in one day.
The new purchase increases an existing $34,033 Yes position, signaling continued conviction rather than a routine exit.

$9,826 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Three-wallet No conviction surge

Three wallets deployed $12.9K toward No during a 165.7x volume spike, with the market falling 24.5% over the past week and one bettor showing a strong long-term record.

Three wallets put $12,882 behind No, including two fresh No buys around 39–40¢.
Trading volume surged to 165.7 times its historical average while Yes fell 24.5% over the past week.
One participant wins 79% of 1,191 resolved bets, while another is 10–4 with $50,513 in profit.

$12,882 on No

Serial trader adds to Yes position

A serial cross-market trader with an 82% historical win rate added $2,080 to an existing Yes position in a relatively quiet political market.

This bettor has won 82% of 115 resolved trades across 25 events and 27 markets.
The $2,080 purchase was more than 11 times the flagged 24-hour market volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
The trader is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market slipping from 80¢ to 78¢.

$2,107 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable bettor joins coordinated Yes buying

Three wallets are aligned on Yes, including a profitable 79% winner reducing a large No position, though the trades mostly add to existing exposure.

Three wallets put $6,327 behind Yes, including a bettor with a 79% win rate and $37,665 in reported profit.
The strongest wallet sold $3,407 of No while holding a much larger No position, signaling reduced bearish exposure.
The market remains nine months from the election and Yes has recently slipped 4.5% over a week, making this a notable counter-move rather than a late-resolution trade.

$6,327 on Yes

Serial trader adds to Yes position

A serial cross-market trader with an 82% historical win rate added $2,080 to an existing Yes position in a relatively quiet political market.

This bettor has won 82% of 115 resolved trades across 25 events and 27 markets.
The $2,080 purchase was more than 11 times the flagged 24-hour market volume, signaling strong conviction in Yes.
The trader is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market slipping from 80¢ to 78¢.

$2,080 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 64029856, $174,032
0x6575...b198 — Outcome 64029856, $64,217 (65% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 64029856, $48,899 (82% win rate)
0x9648...6825 — Outcome 64029856, $36,511 (70% win rate)
0x2200...0f2d — Outcome 64029856, $29,043 (32% win rate)
0x1fee...ed5e — Outcome 64029856, $17,504 (90% win rate)
0xa8f1...d87b — Outcome 64029856, $7,186 (47% win rate)
0x944e...8c94 — Outcome 64029856, $6,039 (68% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 64029856, $4,281
0x01da...ea89 — Outcome 64029856, $3,283 (82% win rate)

Related Theses

Fujimori or Sánchez wins presidency

Covers 2 related markets

Argentina won’t win; others favored

Covers 7 related markets

Thunder cover low-scoring game

Covers 3 related markets

Spurs win close defensive game

Covers 3 related markets

France wins comfortably, clean sheet

Covers 3 related markets

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

ResolvedMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner$50,143 tracked7 signalsGlobal ElectionsWorldElectionsWorld ElectionsPoliticsMecklenburg-VorpommernGermanyGerman ElectionsMain Election

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

Price History — “Yes”

102¢

71¢

40¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction