Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
This Polymarket market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026. A “Yes” outcome can come from a unilateral Iranian pledge or an agreement involving the U.S. or Israel; PolySpotter currently tracks $1,440 in smart-money activity on this market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $187,814.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear
Notable Trades
Sharp 82% winner buys No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is taking the No side as part of a broader four-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $532K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related Iran markets with about $20K in total exposure.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 80¢, suggesting a shift in view.
$1,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Lifetime-profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market thesis against Iran surrendering enriched uranium, despite this individual fill being modest.
- This wallet is up about $475k lifetime across 699 resolved bets.
- The bettor has over $40k positioned across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 24¢ is equivalent to buying No at 76¢.
$1,031 on No | Wallet win rate: 41%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is re-entering the Yes side with an $8.8k equivalent buy on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,064 resolved bets, 67% wins, and $219k in lifetime profit.
- They have traded 91 markets across 59 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 23¢, implying they see upside from the current low odds.
$8,806 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is effectively buying Yes at 21¢ while positioning across related Iran markets.
- This trader has resolved 1,064 bets with a 67% win rate and is up $219k lifetime.
- They frequently trade across related event markets, with 59 events and $1.6M in tracked cross-market activity.
- Selling No at 79¢ is effectively buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
$2,765 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $519k profit is taking a bullish Yes position and has a long serial cross-market track record on related event markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $519k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.1M traded across 50 events.
- Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes around 19¢, a low-priced geopolitical bet with upside if talks shift.
$3,078 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% sharp cross-market bettor
Proven profitable wallet with an 82% win rate is taking a bullish Yes position across related Iran markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $519K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.0M deployed across 50 events.
- Selling No at 80¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 20¢, a low-priced geopolitical bet with defined upside.
$1,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader is taking the No side on an Iran uranium market as part of a broader event position, though this individual leg is modest.
- This bettor is up about $313K lifetime across more than $16M in trades.
- They frequently trade related news markets, with 52 events and 95 markets in their history.
- This is part of a larger $21K position across two related markets, favoring No here at 78¢.
$1,567 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Sharp geopolitics bettor
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and +$512k lifetime P&L is taking renewed Yes exposure across related Iran markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $512k lifetime.
- They have bet $22k across 4 related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢, a contrarian position versus the 20% market odds.
$3,735 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
82% winner flips to No
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and $515k profit is buying No while running a broader cross-market thesis across the Iran event.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $515k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with nearly $2.0M deployed across 130 related markets.
- After previously closing a Yes position, they are now buying No at 77¢ on this outcome.
$1,540 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor flips to No
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $471k lifetime profit is buying No after coordinated cross-market positioning on the same event.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $471k lifetime.
- They have positioned across 4 related markets with about $21k in total exposure.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now buying No at 81¢, signaling a thesis shift.
$2,416 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $65,008 (53% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $50,338 (81% win rate)
- 0xac4f...0a27 — No, $48,484 (40% win rate)
- 0x0c0e...434e — No, $40,237 (63% win rate)
- 0xf9c1...39e2 — No, $38,595 (100% win rate)
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Yes, $31,949 (77% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $28,740 (69% win rate)
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — No, $26,812 (62% win rate)
- 0xdbad...9c95 — No, $23,337 (62% win rate)
- 0x53e5...6177 — Yes, $21,289 (43% win rate)
