Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
160 signals across 5 markets · $530,185 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket prediction markets on whether Iran publicly agrees to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by several 2026 deadlines, including April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31. PolySpotter is monitoring $250K+ in smart-money activity across the event, including YES clusters led by high-win-rate wallets and recent NO buying from multiple traders.
Markets (5)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?76 signals · $282,755 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?52 signals · $148,135 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?20 signals · $54,001 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?9 signals · $29,919 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?3 signals · $15,375 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- Profitable whale-led Yes cluster
Coordinated Yes buying on a major Iran uranium market, led by a highly profitable whale and backed by a 201x volume spike plus strong price momentum.
$30,202Score: 15.9 - Sharp cross-market Yes cluster
Three profitable cross-market bettors, including an 81% winner with a long serial event-trading history, are collectively taking the Yes side on a geopolitical market.
$5,818Score: 15.1 - Serial cross-market Yes cluster
Three wallets bought Yes together during a sharp price move, including a serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved-bet win rate and meaningful profit.
$6,881Score: 14.1 - Profitable whale No cluster
A profitable high-volume whale and two other wallets bought $12.6k of No amid a 24x volume spike, making this a strong coordinated contrarian bet.
$12,635Score: 14.0 - 15-wallet geopolitical cluster
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought No in a relatively quiet geopolitical market that has recently moved sharply, making this coordinated conviction worth surfacing.
$3,686Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 82% winner flips to No
Sharp wallet with an 82% resolved win rate and $515k profit is buying No while running a broader cross-market thesis across the Iran event.
$1,540Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - 84% winner cross-market sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with an 84% resolved-bet win rate and extensive cross-market history bought No on an Iran uranium-resolution market.
$1,100Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - 82% winner buying Yes
Sharp 82% lifetime winner with $519k profit is taking a bullish Yes position and has a long serial cross-market track record on related event markets.
$3,078Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - 85% winner building Iran thesis
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.
$1,170Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0 - 82% winner buying Yes
Sharp 82% winning cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes position at 10¢ after activity across four related Iran event markets.
$1,800Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 11.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$124,583 · 4 markets · 34 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xf9c119…39e2$44,853 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 100% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$40,087 · 4 markets · 23 alerts · 82% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$25,400 · 2 markets · 5 alerts · 70% wins
- 0xe2708b…0fc7$22,071 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 88% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$17,622 · 3 markets · 9 alerts · 81% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$16,781 · 3 markets · 8 alerts · 72% wins
- 0x614dc8…1546$16,297 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 67% wins
- 0xbf961d…9942$15,806 · 1 market · 6 alerts · 75% wins
- 0x24c8cf…23e1$14,823 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 39% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile?
The event includes separate markets for multiple 2026 deadlines, so the odds can differ by date. PolySpotter tracks the live Polymarket pricing plus smart-money positioning across all related deadline markets.
What would count as a “Yes” outcome in these markets?
A Yes resolution requires Iran to publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by the relevant deadline. The agreement can be unilateral or part of a deal with the U.S., Israel, or another party, as long as it is a public qualifying pledge.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran uranium market?
Recent PolySpotter alerts show a mix of activity: an 86% winner joined a YES cluster, a 15-wallet geopolitical cluster formed, and an 85% winner was building an Iran thesis. At the same time, three wallets were recently buying NO, suggesting disagreement among sophisticated traders.
Why are there multiple child markets for the same Iran uranium question?
Each child market asks whether Iran agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by a specific deadline, such as April 30, May 31, June 30, or December 31, 2026. This lets traders price not just whether an agreement happens, but how soon it might happen.
When do these Iran uranium surrender markets resolve?
Each child market resolves based on its own listed deadline, while the broader event runs through the 2026 resolution window. If no qualifying public agreement is made by a market’s deadline, that market should resolve No.