Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
60 signals across 4 markets · $196,154 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markets (4)
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?28 signals · $87,859 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?20 signals · $54,001 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?11 signals · $53,124 tracked
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?1 signal · $1,170 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 86% winner joins YES cluster
Three wallets, including an 86% winner up $1.2M, bought $19k of Yes into a 59x volume spike on a geopolitics market.
$19,145Score: 12.4 - 15-wallet geopolitical cluster
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader from a 15-wallet funded cluster bought No in a relatively quiet geopolitical market that has recently moved sharply, making this coordinated conviction worth surfacing.
$3,686Wallet win rate: 69%Score: 12.0 - 85% winner building Iran thesis
Proven 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a cross-market Iran thesis, including $30.7k across three related markets.
$1,170Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 11.0 - 86% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable cross-market trader with an 86% win rate is reopening bullish exposure here by selling No, which converts to buying Yes around 37¢ after previously trading this market.
$1,264Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.0 - 84% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A highly profitable 84% win-rate trader is re-entering this geopolitical market by effectively buying Yes around 23¢, alongside a broad cross-market pattern that suggests a researched event thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,848Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.0 - 85% winner flips to No
Profitable cross-market specialist with an 85% win rate just opened a fresh No position after previously closing a Yes bet, suggesting a deliberate thesis change rather than routine position management.
$1,155Wallet win rate: 85%Score: 10.0 - Profitable cross-market Iran bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes amid a major event-level volume spike, with $93.5K positioned across related Iran markets.
$1,214Wallet win rate: 63%Score: 9.6 - 3-wallet geopolitics cluster
Three wallets aligned on Yes in a major geopolitics market, including one profitable high-volume trader, creating a modest but notable coordinated signal at 28-29¢.
$4,345Score: 9.1 - 74% win-rate macro trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record reopened a position in this Iran market at a better price, suggesting deliberate conviction rather than random flow.
$2,008Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0 - 74% win-rate event trader
A profitable 74% win-rate macro trader is reopening a Yes position as part of a 3-market event thesis, which is notable despite the modest ticket size.
$1,758Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 9.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0xbaa2bc…2c73$56,214 · 3 markets · 17 alerts · 63% wins
- 0xe2708b…0fc7$22,071 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$20,985 · 3 markets · 13 alerts · 85% wins
- 0xa022ba…77f8$12,821 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 64% wins
- 0x35bbba…009b$12,175 · 3 markets · 6 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xe73874…df65$8,545 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 68% wins
- 0xdd0891…5ee9$7,721 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 97% wins
- 0x2e0b70…8070$5,754 · 1 market · 3 alerts · 93% wins
- 0x293e58…7674$4,497 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x162f6f…798d$3,686 · 1 market · 1 alert · 69% wins