Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $190,184.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor buying longshot Yes
Surfaced despite low composite score because the wallet has a strong 84% record over 481 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $47K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 5¢ on a market currently priced as a longshot.
- The wallet has a large 481-bet track record, making the win record more meaningful.
$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp 82% winning cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes position at 10¢ after activity across four related Iran event markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $543K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.4M deployed across 147 related markets.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, a low-cost bet on a uranium-stockpile agreement.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable 77% bettor
A profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win record is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ on a geopolitical market, though the edge signal is modest.
- This bettor has won 10 of 13 resolved trades and is up $617 lifetime.
- Selling No at 89¢ is effectively a Yes bet at 11¢, taking the contrarian side after Yes fell 16% this week.
- Entry at 11¢ implies they see a long-shot geopolitical outcome as underpriced.
$2,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
41-0 sharp exits No
A flawless 41-0 bettor with $211k lifetime profit exited No amid a major volume spike and sharp move toward Yes, making the equivalent Yes entry worth tracking despite being a position close.
- This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved trades and is up $211k lifetime.
- They sold $14.5k of No, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
- The market saw a 67x volume spike and Yes has already moved up about 14 points in 24 hours.
$14,481 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable geopolitical momentum trader
Seasoned profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes into a sharp volume spike and upward momentum on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has 732 resolved trades and is up $155k lifetime across nearly $3.9M bet.
- The market saw a 68x volume spike while Yes has moved sharply higher over the past day.
- Selling No at 73¢ is effectively buying Yes at 27¢, below the current 30¢ odds.
$1,454 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
Surface because a highly profitable 36-0 wallet is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor has won 36 of 36 resolved bets and is up $405K lifetime.
- They have placed $24.5K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Buying No at 84¢ implies confidence this resolves against Iran agreeing to surrender uranium.
$2,412 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp 82% winner buys No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is taking the No side as part of a broader four-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $532K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related Iran markets with about $20K in total exposure.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 80¢, suggesting a shift in view.
$1,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Lifetime-profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market thesis against Iran surrendering enriched uranium, despite this individual fill being modest.
- This wallet is up about $475k lifetime across 699 resolved bets.
- The bettor has over $40k positioned across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 24¢ is equivalent to buying No at 76¢.
$1,031 on No | Wallet win rate: 52%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is re-entering the Yes side with an $8.8k equivalent buy on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,064 resolved bets, 67% wins, and $219k in lifetime profit.
- They have traded 91 markets across 59 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 23¢, implying they see upside from the current low odds.
$8,806 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is effectively buying Yes at 21¢ while positioning across related Iran markets.
- This trader has resolved 1,064 bets with a 67% win rate and is up $219k lifetime.
- They frequently trade across related event markets, with 59 events and $1.6M in tracked cross-market activity.
- Selling No at 79¢ is effectively buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
$2,765 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $50,338 (79% win rate)
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Yes, $31,949 (77% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Yes, $20,000
- 0x8495...b6e8 — Yes, $18,172 (57% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $17,441 (68% win rate)
- 0xd286...2322 — Yes, $16,582 (96% win rate)
- 0xdaef...54e9 — Yes, $13,468 (67% win rate)
- 0x2ac9...e554 — Yes, $13,000
- 0xd426...334a — Yes, $12,619 (51% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $11,249 (52% win rate)
