Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026. A "Yes" outcome can come from a unilateral public pledge or an agreement involving the U.S. or Israel, as long as Iran publicly agrees before the deadline. PolySpotter also shows smart money activity on this geopolitical prediction market, with $3,620 tracked so far.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,620.

Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear

Notable Trades

97% win-rate macro bettor

A proven high-win-rate trader with activity across 196 related markets just put $3.6k into No on a geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite only one signal firing.

  • This bettor wins 97% of resolved trades and has made bets across 196 markets
  • They bought No at 81¢ on a geopolitics market, backing the already favored side with $3.6k
  • The market has moved up 7.5 points in a day, suggesting fresh money is leaning the same way

$3,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 97%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $14,046 (66% win rate)
  2. 0x3d18...1160 No, $5,500 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x6139...6b7a Yes, $4,487 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xdd08...5ee9 No, $4,473 (97% win rate)
  5. 0xdbad...9c95 No, $3,337 (62% win rate)
  6. 0x162f...798d No, $3,000 (69% win rate)
  7. 0xbdd2...0bd8 No, $2,450 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x08c9...bee7 Yes, $1,749
  9. 0x307f...c327 No, $1,189
  10. 0xc021...1fa8 No, $1,055 (52% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

83d$3,620 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear
Yes
19¢
No
81¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
90¢
83¢
75¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

6h ago

$3,620 on No at 81¢

81¢81¢

Related Theses

Iran Uranium Surrender Polymarket Odds | PolySpotter