Part of: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $190,184.
Categories: Geopolitics, Trump, Middle East, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Nuclear, Negotiation Topics
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor buying longshot Yes
Surfaced despite low composite score because the wallet has a strong 84% record over 481 resolved bets and positive lifetime P&L.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $47K lifetime.
- They bought Yes at 5¢ on a market currently priced as a longshot.
- The wallet has a large 481-bet track record, making the win record more meaningful.
$1,167 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
82% winner buying Yes
Sharp 82% winning cross-market trader is taking a bullish Yes position at 10¢ after activity across four related Iran event markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $543K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $2.4M deployed across 147 related markets.
- Selling No at 90¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 10¢, a low-cost bet on a uranium-stockpile agreement.
$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable 77% bettor
A profitable wallet with a 77% resolved-bet win record is effectively buying Yes at 11¢ on a geopolitical market, though the edge signal is modest.
- This bettor has won 10 of 13 resolved trades and is up $617 lifetime.
- Selling No at 89¢ is effectively a Yes bet at 11¢, taking the contrarian side after Yes fell 16% this week.
- Entry at 11¢ implies they see a long-shot geopolitical outcome as underpriced.
$2,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
41-0 sharp exits No
A flawless 41-0 bettor with $211k lifetime profit exited No amid a major volume spike and sharp move toward Yes, making the equivalent Yes entry worth tracking despite being a position close.
- This bettor has won 41 of 41 resolved trades and is up $211k lifetime.
- They sold $14.5k of No, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 18¢.
- The market saw a 67x volume spike and Yes has already moved up about 14 points in 24 hours.
$14,481 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable geopolitical momentum trader
Seasoned profitable cross-market trader is effectively buying Yes into a sharp volume spike and upward momentum on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has 732 resolved trades and is up $155k lifetime across nearly $3.9M bet.
- The market saw a 68x volume spike while Yes has moved sharply higher over the past day.
- Selling No at 73¢ is effectively buying Yes at 27¢, below the current 30¢ odds.
$1,454 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 59%
Perfect-record cross-market bettor
Surface because a highly profitable 36-0 wallet is adding a No position as part of a broader cross-market thesis on the same event.
- This bettor has won 36 of 36 resolved bets and is up $405K lifetime.
- They have placed $24.5K across 3 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Buying No at 84¢ implies confidence this resolves against Iran agreeing to surrender uranium.
$2,412 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Sharp 82% winner buys No
Sharp profitable wallet with an 82% record is taking the No side as part of a broader four-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $532K lifetime.
- They are positioning across 4 related Iran markets with about $20K in total exposure.
- They previously closed a Yes position here and are now buying No at 80¢, suggesting a shift in view.
$1,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable cross-market geopolitics bettor
Lifetime-profitable wallet is expressing a broader cross-market thesis against Iran surrendering enriched uranium, despite this individual fill being modest.
- This wallet is up about $475k lifetime across 699 resolved bets.
- The bettor has over $40k positioned across related Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling Yes at 24¢ is equivalent to buying No at 76¢.
$1,031 on No | Wallet win rate: 46%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is re-entering the Yes side with an $8.8k equivalent buy on a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,064 resolved bets, 67% wins, and $219k in lifetime profit.
- They have traded 91 markets across 59 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling No at 77¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 23¢, implying they see upside from the current low odds.
$8,806 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a long history is effectively buying Yes at 21¢ while positioning across related Iran markets.
- This trader has resolved 1,064 bets with a 67% win rate and is up $219k lifetime.
- They frequently trade across related event markets, with 59 events and $1.6M in tracked cross-market activity.
- Selling No at 79¢ is effectively buying Yes at 21¢, close to the current market price.
$2,765 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Top Holders
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 71072033, $50,338 (80% win rate)
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Outcome 71072033, $31,949 (77% win rate)
- 0x5ae5...68e1 — Outcome 71072033, $20,000
- 0x8495...b6e8 — Outcome 71072033, $18,172 (57% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 71072033, $17,441 (70% win rate)
- 0xd286...2322 — Outcome 71072033, $16,582 (96% win rate)
- 0xdaef...54e9 — Outcome 71072033, $13,468 (65% win rate)
- 0x2ac9...e554 — Outcome 71072033, $13,000
- 0xd426...334a — Outcome 71072033, $12,619 (46% win rate)
- 0x0042...321e — Outcome 71072033, $11,249 (51% win rate)
