This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $5.5K lifetime. They put $1.5K on No at 87¢ in a geopolitical market where informed views may matter. Entry at 87¢ implies a high-conviction view that an IAEA visit to these sites does not happen by July 31.

Part of: IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,035.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Negotiation Topics, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

90% winner buying No

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 90% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite only a weak new-wallet signal.

This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up about $5.5K lifetime.
They put $1.5K on No at 87¢ in a geopolitical market where informed views may matter.
Entry at 87¢ implies a high-conviction view that an IAEA visit to these sites does not happen by July 31.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with over $1M lifetime profit bought $8.5k of No in a relatively thin geopolitical market.

This bettor is up $1.05M lifetime across 1,136 resolved markets.
They have traded across 36 events and 54 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process.
The $8.5k No buy was 58% of the market’s 24h volume, a meaningful bet in a quiet market.

$8,535 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Related Theses

Iran deal lands in May

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Iran closes airspace after May 8

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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium

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Israel-Iran peace deal happens

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Hormuz traffic normalizes by June

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Blockade persists through June

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IAEA inspections won't happen

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Likud avoids 25-29 seats

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IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?$10,035 tracked2 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsNegotiation TopicsIranU.S. x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.