Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $160,511.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes during a volume spike, with corroboration from a small linked-wallet cluster.

  • This bettor has a deep track record: 1,377 resolved bets, 58% wins, and $1.18M in lifetime profit.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with nearly $8M tracked across 115 events.
  • The market saw an 18.8x volume spike, and this wallet bought Yes at 78¢ before it moved to 81¢.

$2,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.

$2,194 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

75% winner buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.

$1,084 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

75% winner buying YES

Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
  • They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
  • The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.

$4,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%

94% winner fading rally

Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate is taking the contrarian No side against an 88% Yes market on US-Iran diplomacy.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $40,389 lifetime.
  • They are taking the No side after Yes rallied 57 points this week.
  • Selling Yes at 83¢ means their effective No entry was 17¢, a high-upside contrarian position.

$4,217 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

77% winner fades Yes

Sharp 77% winner with positive lifetime P&L is taking the No side while also trading a large 16-market thesis across the same event.

  • This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $27.8K lifetime.
  • They have traded 16 related markets for $107K, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
  • Selling Yes at 80¢ is equivalent to buying No at 20¢, a contrarian bet against the current 82% Yes price.

$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%

Elite trader exits Yes

A highly profitable 85% lifetime bettor exited Yes exposure, which converts to a No entry at 20¢ despite the trade looking like position management.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
  • They have traded across 113 events with $7.6M in cross-market volume, suggesting a broad track record.
  • Selling Yes at 80¢ is equivalent to backing No at 20¢, against a market currently pricing No near 17¢.

$2,406 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

94% winner fading rally

Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate is taking the contrarian No side against an 88% Yes market on US-Iran diplomacy.

  • This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $40,389 lifetime.
  • They are taking the No side after Yes rallied 57 points this week.
  • Selling Yes at 83¢ means their effective No entry was 17¢, a high-upside contrarian position.

$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%

81% winner fading consensus

Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is taking a contrarian No position against an 88% Yes market, with related positioning across two markets.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $3.7k lifetime.
  • Selling Yes at 87¢ is effectively buying No at 13¢ against a heavily favored 88% Yes market.
  • They have $10.5k positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.

$6,574 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Sharp repeat wallet fading Yes

Surfaced despite a weak composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has an 86% resolved-bet win rate and is taking a fresh contrarian No position.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is profitable across 21 settled markets.
  • They are selling Yes after a 34-point weekly rally, effectively buying No around 33¢.
  • The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting this is not a one-off bet.

$1,563 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa022...77f8 Outcome 10170508, $107,267 (71% win rate)
  2. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 10170508, $92,825 (73% win rate)
  3. 0xa771...42d1 Outcome 10170508, $55,901 (73% win rate)
  4. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 10170508, $20,442 (49% win rate)
  5. 0xae7c...487e Outcome 10170508, $14,482 (86% win rate)
  6. 0x77c8...bc8c Outcome 10170508, $11,750 (37% win rate)
  7. 0x7fd3...e662 Outcome 10170508, $10,000 (42% win rate)
  8. 0x8085...ea17 Outcome 10170508, $9,762 (54% win rate)
  9. 0x9b9e...ae15 Outcome 10170508, $9,489 (71% win rate)
  10. 0x2910...d94d Outcome 10170508, $9,362

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 6 related markets

No Iran peace deal in 2026

Covers 9 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$160,511 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopoliticsPeace Deal

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

50d ago

$2,811 on Yes at 78¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

50d ago

$2,194 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

50d ago

$1,084 on Yes at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

51d ago

$4,647 on Yes at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

51d ago

$4,217 on No at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

51d ago

$3,900 on No at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

52d ago

$2,406 on No at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

52d ago

$1,266 on No at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

52d ago

$6,574 on No at 13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

56d ago

$1,563 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

56d ago

$2,682 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

56d ago

$2,563 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

56d ago

$5,437 on Yes at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

56d ago

$1,998 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$2,050 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,595 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,320 on No at 33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,815 on Yes at 72¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,695 on Yes at 62¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,819 on Yes at 62¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$4,016 on No at 32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,237 on No at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$2,564 on No at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,676 on No at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,876 on No at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

57d ago

$1,207 on Yes at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$3,139 on Yes at 74¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$2,833 on Yes at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$2,040 on Yes at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$1,082 on Yes at 64¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$3,900 on No at 38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$7,269 on Yes at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$1,506 on Yes at 60¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$1,182 on Yes at 32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$2,074 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

58d ago

$2,556 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$3,444 on No at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$2,440 on No at 71¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$7,300 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$1,093 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$1,710 on No at 66¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$3,826 on Yes at 38¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$5,440 on Yes at 32¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$3,993 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$7,495 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$1,401 on No at 68¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$5,140 on No at 67¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

59d ago

$18,292 on No at 69¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

60d ago

$2,460 on Yes at 37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

60d ago

$2,685 on No at 63¢

Related Theses