Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $170,424.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Sharp repeat wallet fading Yes
Surfaced despite a weak composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has an 86% resolved-bet win rate and is taking a fresh contrarian No position.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is profitable across 21 settled markets.
- They are selling Yes after a 34-point weekly rally, effectively buying No around 33¢.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting this is not a one-off bet.
$1,563 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp repeat wallet fading Yes
Surfaced despite a weak composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has an 86% resolved-bet win rate and is taking a fresh contrarian No position.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is profitable across 21 settled markets.
- They are selling Yes after a 34-point weekly rally, effectively buying No around 33¢.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting this is not a one-off bet.
$2,682 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$2,563 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader is buying Yes after broad positioning across related US-Iran markets, with strong recent market momentum supporting the thesis.
- This bettor has won 71% of 72 resolved trades and is up $282,863 lifetime.
- They have traded 5 related markets in this event for $118,913, suggesting a broad US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Yes has already moved from their 68¢ entry to 72¢, with the market up 39 points over the past week.
$5,437 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$1,998 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$2,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$1,595 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
75% winner buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.
$1,815 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner event specialist
Sharp cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate and $235k profit is adding bullish exposure across a large US-Iran event thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up $235k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 markets in this same event for $116k, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Selling No at 38¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 62¢, even after Yes has jumped 26 points today.
$1,695 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $455,903 (69% win rate)
- 0x02d8...0c91 — Yes, $120,900 (84% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $107,267 (71% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — No, $83,837 (53% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $54,755 (71% win rate)
- 0x5109...5e9c — No, $53,829 (39% win rate)
- 0x6e4b...3c6d — No, $50,268 (51% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $41,037 (82% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $39,674 (49% win rate)
- 0xe3b2...7d94 — Yes, $39,000
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