US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $16,745.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
93% sharp buying Yes
A proven sharp wallet with a 93% resolved win rate and strong profitability bought Yes at 68¢ on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved trades and is up $11.2K lifetime.
- Their wins came at average odds of 41%, showing a strong record beyond just picking favorites.
- They bought Yes at 68¢ as the market has moved up 4 points today.
$1,258 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%
70% serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 70% resolved win rate is buying Yes, though the trade size is modest and price has moved slightly against the entry.
- This bettor has won 70% of 294 resolved bets and is up about $38k lifetime.
- They have traded across 35 events with $162k in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable event-driven process.
- They bought $1.5k of Yes at 64¢ on a geopolitics market where informed views are plausible.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
$125K cross-market No thesis
A single wallet is building a $125k cross-market No thesis across 9 related diplomacy markets, though the wallet's headline win rate is weakened by negative P&L and mostly near-certain wins.
- This wallet has placed $125k across 9 related markets, pointing to a broad No thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The trade buys No at 37¢ while the market is liquid and actively trading, suggesting a deliberate contrarian position.
- The wallet has won 90% of resolved bets, though its lifetime P&L is still negative.
$2,523 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
$126K cross-market Iran bettor
A high-volume cross-market bettor is taking the No side as part of a broader $125.7K US-Iran thesis, though the wallet's negative lifetime P&L tempers the signal.
- This wallet has positioned across 9 related markets with $125.7K total exposure, suggesting a broad US-Iran thesis.
- It is buying No at 39¢ while the market still gives Yes a 62% chance.
- The bettor has won 90% of resolved bets, but is down $12.7K lifetime, so this is a watchable thesis rather than a proven sharp edge.
$2,860 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
$124k cross-market No thesis
A high-volume cross-market trader is extending a $124k thesis across 9 related US-Iran markets by buying No, with market momentum already moving that way.
- This wallet has put $124k across 9 related markets, suggesting a broad diplomatic-thesis trade rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor has won 90% of resolved trades, though lifetime profit is negative, so the signal is more about positioning than proven edge.
- They bought No at 38¢ while Yes has fallen 10.5% in the past day, aligning with recent market momentum.
$1,015 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
84% winner betting NO
Proven profitable wallet with an 84% win rate is taking another NO position as part of a large, repeated cross-market thesis on US-Iran diplomacy.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $410K lifetime.
- They have traded 14 related markets in this event, totaling $113K of exposure.
- Entry at 38¢ implies a contrarian view versus a market still pricing Yes around 63%.
$1,520 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
84% winner cross-market thesis
Proven 84% winner with large cross-market positioning is adding to a broader US-Iran thesis by buying No at 33¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $410K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.29M deployed across 37 events.
- This is part of a larger US-Iran position across 13 related markets totaling about $111K.
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Serial cross-market NO buyer
Serial cross-market political trader with positive history bought No at 30¢, and the position is already moving in their favor to 34¢.
- This bettor has traded 58 markets across 33 events and is up $57K overall.
- They put $16K into 3 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 30¢ has already moved to 34¢, implying early market validation of the No position.
$4,749 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $52,898 (70% win rate)
- 0x5969...5bed — No, $37,915 (91% win rate)
- 0xa022...77f8 — No, $24,116 (64% win rate)
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — No, $15,386 (85% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $9,370 (47% win rate)
- 0xc91b...93bd — Yes, $6,282
- 0xab7b...f350 — No, $4,985 (51% win rate)
- 0x15f7...a018 — Yes, $4,911 (61% win rate)
- 0x6d16...7228 — No, $4,030
- 0xd6dd...98ee — Yes, $3,899
