Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $160,511.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought Yes during a volume spike, with corroboration from a small linked-wallet cluster.
- This bettor has a deep track record: 1,377 resolved bets, 58% wins, and $1.18M in lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with nearly $8M tracked across 115 events.
- The market saw an 18.8x volume spike, and this wallet bought Yes at 78¢ before it moved to 81¢.
$2,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 60%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp 81% lifetime bettor with $590k profit is taking the No side while heavily trading across this US-Iran event complex.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $590k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 markets in this same event with $159k deployed, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Buying No at 33¢ is a contrarian position after Yes rose 25.5 points over the past week.
$2,194 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
75% winner buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.
$1,084 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
75% winner buying YES
Sharp profitable wallet with a 75% resolved win rate is taking a Yes-equivalent position as part of a large 10-market US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $236k lifetime.
- They have traded 10 related US-Iran markets, totaling $116k in exposure.
- The market has moved sharply toward Yes, up 37 points today, and this trade adds to that direction.
$4,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
94% winner fading rally
Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate is taking the contrarian No side against an 88% Yes market on US-Iran diplomacy.
- This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $40,389 lifetime.
- They are taking the No side after Yes rallied 57 points this week.
- Selling Yes at 83¢ means their effective No entry was 17¢, a high-upside contrarian position.
$4,217 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
77% winner fades Yes
Sharp 77% winner with positive lifetime P&L is taking the No side while also trading a large 16-market thesis across the same event.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $27.8K lifetime.
- They have traded 16 related markets for $107K, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
- Selling Yes at 80¢ is equivalent to buying No at 20¢, a contrarian bet against the current 82% Yes price.
$3,900 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Elite trader exits Yes
A highly profitable 85% lifetime bettor exited Yes exposure, which converts to a No entry at 20¢ despite the trade looking like position management.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $1.38M lifetime.
- They have traded across 113 events with $7.6M in cross-market volume, suggesting a broad track record.
- Selling Yes at 80¢ is equivalent to backing No at 20¢, against a market currently pricing No near 17¢.
$2,406 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
94% winner fading rally
Sharp profitable wallet with a 94% resolved-bet win rate is taking the contrarian No side against an 88% Yes market on US-Iran diplomacy.
- This bettor has won 15 of 16 resolved bets and is up $40,389 lifetime.
- They are taking the No side after Yes rallied 57 points this week.
- Selling Yes at 83¢ means their effective No entry was 17¢, a high-upside contrarian position.
$1,266 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
81% winner fading consensus
Sharp wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is taking a contrarian No position against an 88% Yes market, with related positioning across two markets.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $3.7k lifetime.
- Selling Yes at 87¢ is effectively buying No at 13¢ against a heavily favored 88% Yes market.
- They have $10.5k positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran thesis.
$6,574 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Sharp repeat wallet fading Yes
Surfaced despite a weak composite score because this repeat-flagged wallet has an 86% resolved-bet win rate and is taking a fresh contrarian No position.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is profitable across 21 settled markets.
- They are selling Yes after a 34-point weekly rally, effectively buying No around 33¢.
- The wallet has been flagged 7 times before, suggesting this is not a one-off bet.
$1,563 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 10170508, $107,267 (71% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10170508, $92,825 (73% win rate)
- 0xa771...42d1 — Outcome 10170508, $55,901 (73% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10170508, $20,442 (49% win rate)
- 0xae7c...487e — Outcome 10170508, $14,482 (86% win rate)
- 0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 10170508, $11,750 (37% win rate)
- 0x7fd3...e662 — Outcome 10170508, $10,000 (42% win rate)
- 0x8085...ea17 — Outcome 10170508, $9,762 (54% win rate)
- 0x9b9e...ae15 — Outcome 10170508, $9,489 (71% win rate)
- 0x2910...d94d — Outcome 10170508, $9,362
Related Theses
No Iran peace deal in 2026
Covers 9 related markets
