US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether authorized US and Iranian representatives will hold an official diplomatic meeting on US-Iran relations by May 15, 2026. The market resolves Yes only for a direct, official meeting held by 11:59 PM ET on that date; indirect contacts do not count. PolySpotter tracks the latest odds, smart money positioning, and notable trader signals for this geopolitical market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

23 smart money signals detected, totaling $74,707.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

84% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 84%-win-rate trader is making another event-wide US-Iran diplomacy bet here, and their sell of No cleanly translates into a fresh bullish Yes view around 37¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $406k lifetime.
  • They have bet $90k across 12 related markets in this same event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • Selling No at 63¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 37¢, close to the current 36-37¢ market.

$1,890 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Profitable new wallet buying dip

A 21-day-old wallet with repeat large bets and early profits bought Yes at 36¢ after a 12-point drop, suggesting fresh conviction in a liquid geopolitics market.

  • This 21-day-old wallet has already been flagged 5 times, is up $4.7k, and has won all 6 resolved bets so far.
  • They bought Yes at 36¢ after the market fell 12 points in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as mispriced.
  • This is a fresh $1.8k position in a news-driven geopolitics market with deep liquidity, so the trade is more likely conviction than random noise.

$1,780 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

85% win-rate macro bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 85% win rate is taking a fresh bearish position here after previously closing a smaller opposite stake.

  • This bettor wins 85% of their resolved trades and is up about $422k lifetime.
  • They trade connected geopolitical markets heavily: 84 markets across 35 events, with 12 positions in this event alone.
  • This is a fresh No bet at 57¢ after closing an earlier Yes position, showing an updated view rather than routine profit-taking.

$1,140 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

85% win-rate event specialist

A highly profitable 85% win-rate trader with a long history of cross-market event positioning is making a fresh, meaningful buy on No after previously closing a small Yes position.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $422k lifetime.
  • They have traded 84 markets across 35 related events, which suggests a repeatable edge in complex news markets.
  • This is a fresh $2.3k buy on No at 57¢ after previously closing a small Yes position, showing a clear switch in view.

$2,280 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

Profitable event thesis trader

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with a large resolved sample is buying No here as part of a broader multi-market geopolitical thesis.

  • This bettor has won 68% of 797 resolved trades and is up about $733k lifetime
  • They have traded 5 markets in this same event for $17.5k total, suggesting a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought No at 56¢ in a liquid market, signaling a clear view against a US-Iran meeting by May 15

$2,290 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

90% win-rate event trader

A high-accuracy event trader with a 90% win rate is extending a broad cross-market thesis, buying No at 55¢ in a major geopolitical market.

  • This wallet wins 90% of resolved bets across 181 markets, showing a strong record at picking event outcomes.
  • They have put about $99k across 8 related markets in the same event, so this looks like a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • They bought No at 55¢ while the market still implies nearly even odds, suggesting they see the chance of no meeting as materially higher.

$1,674 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% hitter on geopolitics

A bettor with a 90% hit rate is building a broad cross-market geopolitical thesis, and this trade aligns with that pattern at a reasonable price in a liquid news-driven market.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 180 bets, showing a strong record in event markets.
  • They have put nearly $99k across 8 related markets in the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought No at 55¢ in a liquid market, implying they think the chance of a US-Iran meeting by May 15 is lower than current pricing.

$1,101 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner cross-market thesis

High-win-rate cross-market trader is adding a sizable No position in a geopolitics market during a sharp event-wide volume surge.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 180 markets and is active across 8 related event markets.
  • They bought No at 54¢ during a 60x volume spike, suggesting a broader thesis on US-Iran diplomacy rather than a one-off trade.
  • The bet is meaningful at $6.5k, though this is still a liquid market so the signal comes more from the trader’s track record than market impact.

$6,526 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

90% winner, 8-market thesis

A proven 90% hit-rate trader is expressing the same geopolitical thesis across 8 related markets, and this trade adds a clear view at 53¢ in a liquid news-driven market.

  • This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades across 180 markets, showing a strong record even if overall P&L is slightly negative.
  • They have put $95,551 across 8 related markets in the same event, which points to a coordinated geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • This trade buys No at 53¢ in a liquid market with a tight 1¢ spread, making the position easy to follow.

$2,675 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

85% winner, broad thesis bet

A historically strong wallet with an 85% win rate is making a fresh directional bet as part of a large 12-market geopolitical thesis, which is notable despite the modest single-trade size.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $421k lifetime.
  • They have put about $51.5k across 12 related markets in the same event, pointing to a deliberate macro view.
  • This trade sells No at 48¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes at 52¢, and it appears to be a fresh position after previously closing out.

$1,680 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $51,106 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x5969...5bed No, $50,504 (90% win rate)
  3. 0x7447...a16d No, $26,108 (57% win rate)
  4. 0xe7cb...d447 Yes, $20,000 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x5739...5f1a No, $14,850 (53% win rate)
  6. 0x53e5...6177 Yes, $14,250 (43% win rate)
  7. 0x5f17...519e Yes, $13,069 (90% win rate)
  8. 0x8b40...8ab4 Yes, $11,815 (59% win rate)
  9. 0x473c...4f61 No, $11,585 (60% win rate)
  10. 0xc658...64ac No, $9,859

Related Theses

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

16d$74,707 tracked23 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
37¢
No
64¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
67¢
41¢
15¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3h ago

$1,890 on Yes at 37¢

37¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3h ago

$1,780 on Yes at 36¢

36¢37¢1¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

17h ago

$1,140 on No at 57¢

57¢64¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

18h ago

$2,280 on No at 57¢

57¢64¢7¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

18h ago

$2,290 on No at 56¢

56¢64¢8¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

21h ago

$1,674 on No at 55¢

55¢64¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

22h ago

$1,101 on No at 55¢

55¢64¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

22h ago

$6,526 on No at 54¢

54¢64¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

22h ago

$2,675 on No at 53¢

53¢64¢11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

1d ago

$1,680 on Yes at 52¢

52¢37¢15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

1d ago

$1,650 on No at 55¢

55¢64¢9¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

1d ago

$2,090 on No at 54¢

54¢64¢10¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

2d ago

$6,184 on Yes at 62¢

62¢37¢25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

2d ago

$2,520 on Yes at 50¢

50¢37¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3d ago

$2,040 on Yes at 49¢

49¢37¢12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 50¢

50¢37¢13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3d ago

$2,350 on Yes at 74¢

74¢37¢37¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

3d ago

$17,819 on No at 20¢

20¢64¢44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

4d ago

$1,200 on No at 20¢

20¢64¢44¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

4d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 78¢

78¢37¢41¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

4d ago

$2,009 on Yes at 84¢

84¢37¢47¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

4d ago

$8,754 on Yes at 70¢

70¢37¢33¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

6d ago

$2,056 on Yes at 75¢

75¢37¢38¢

Related Theses