Part of: Berlin State Election Winner

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,611.

Categories: Global Elections, Politics, Elections, Germany, World Elections, World, German Elections, Main Election

Notable Trades

92% winner backs CDU No

A highly proven bettor with a 92% win rate and $1.6M profit is making a fresh $10,000 bet that CDU will not win the most seats.

This bettor has won 92% of 384 resolved positions and earned $1.6M in profit.
The $10,000 No bet is meaningful conviction in a political market with 2026 resolution.
Their 63% average winning entry price suggests this is a substantial edge rather than routine favorite buying.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

94% win-rate political bettor

A highly proven bettor with a 94% win rate and $1.34M profit is making a fresh $1,421 bet on No in a liquid Berlin election market.

This bettor has won 94% of 2,741 resolved positions and is up $1.34 million.
The wallet is buying No at 79¢, aligning with the market’s recent move down to 20% for Yes.
With activity across 569 events, this is a proven repeat trader rather than a one-off wager.

$1,421 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Quiet-market No breakout

A moderately large No buy in a quiet Berlin election market drove a major breakout, but the wallet’s track record is only mildly supportive.

A $3.4k No buy was 66% of the market’s 24h volume, a sizable bet for this quiet election market.
The trade helped push No to a new high, with CDU Yes down 24 points over the past week.
The wallet is profitable overall, up $53.7k, though its 48% win rate is not a strong sharp-bettor signal.

$2,190 on No | Wallet win rate: 49%