Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.
45 smart money signals detected, totaling $127,193.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$1,973 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$1,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable cross-market contrarian
Sharp profitable wallet is taking a contrarian No position while also showing broad cross-market positioning across this Iran event.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $242K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 10 related markets in this event, totaling about $269K in exposure.
- This trade buys No around 15¢ against an 86% Yes market, implying a high-upside contrarian view.
$2,867 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
7-wallet cross-market cluster
High-scoring coordinated/cross-market Iran ceasefire bet from a profitable wallet cluster buying Yes into strong recent momentum.
- Seven wallets funded by the same source are positioned on this theme, with $96K spread across 7 related markets.
- The cluster’s related bets have an 82% hit rate, suggesting a strong read on this event.
- They bought Yes at 87¢ as the market has already moved up 22.5 points this week.
$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 65%
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$1,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$1,372 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
81% winner re-enters Yes
Sharp 81% lifetime winner is re-entering Yes while building a broader cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64K lifetime across 270 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.38M deployed across 80 related markets.
- This is part of a broader $16.2K position across 3 markets as Yes has rallied 24.5% in the past day.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
14-market Iran thesis
A profitable wallet is re-entering Yes as part of a large 14-market Iran-related thesis, with market momentum strongly confirming the direction.
- This wallet has put $297k across 14 related markets, so this Yes buy looks like part of a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The market has moved 19 points toward Yes in the last day, and this bettor is still buying at 76¢.
- The wallet is modestly profitable overall, up about $70k across 581 resolved bets.
$1,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Top Holders
- 0xf192...6ee2 — No, $7,681 (67% win rate)
- 0xbb1f...907d — No, $7,184 (100% win rate)
- 0x7c47...882a — No, $7,012 (28% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — No, $5,570 (73% win rate)
- 0x0845...6b6f — No, $2,979 (70% win rate)
- 0x34ab...3eb5 — No, $2,289 (36% win rate)
- 0xbebe...72e1 — No, $2,000 (69% win rate)
- 0xcca9...4c9f — No, $1,500 (67% win rate)
- 0xebda...75a9 — No, $913
- 0x05ab...8145 — No, $824 (46% win rate)
