Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
This Polymarket tracks whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran peace agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by the market’s deadline. PolySpotter is tracking live prediction market odds and $1,973 in smart money activity, including recent sharp cross-market Iran-related signals. The market resolves based on an official qualifying U.S. announcement, with the listed resolution timestamp shown as June 30, 2026 UTC.
45 smart money signals detected, totaling $127,193.
Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal
Notable Trades
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$1,973 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$1,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Profitable cross-market contrarian
Sharp profitable wallet is taking a contrarian No position while also showing broad cross-market positioning across this Iran event.
- This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $242K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 10 related markets in this event, totaling about $269K in exposure.
- This trade buys No around 15¢ against an 86% Yes market, implying a high-upside contrarian view.
$2,867 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
7-wallet cross-market cluster
High-scoring coordinated/cross-market Iran ceasefire bet from a profitable wallet cluster buying Yes into strong recent momentum.
- Seven wallets funded by the same source are positioned on this theme, with $96K spread across 7 related markets.
- The cluster’s related bets have an 82% hit rate, suggesting a strong read on this event.
- They bought Yes at 87¢ as the market has already moved up 22.5 points this week.
$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$1,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp cross-market Iran bettor
Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
- This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.
$1,372 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
81% winner re-enters Yes
Sharp 81% lifetime winner is re-entering Yes while building a broader cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64K lifetime across 270 markets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.38M deployed across 80 related markets.
- This is part of a broader $16.2K position across 3 markets as Yes has rallied 24.5% in the past day.
$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Elite cross-market Iran bettor
Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.
- This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
- This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.
$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
14-market Iran thesis
A profitable wallet is re-entering Yes as part of a large 14-market Iran-related thesis, with market momentum strongly confirming the direction.
- This wallet has put $297k across 14 related markets, so this Yes buy looks like part of a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- The market has moved 19 points toward Yes in the last day, and this bettor is still buying at 76¢.
- The wallet is modestly profitable overall, up about $70k across 581 resolved bets.
$1,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 10689287, $179,407 (82% win rate)
- 0xff72...cdaa — Outcome 10689287, $13,760 (65% win rate)
- 0x6d9f...9790 — Outcome 10689287, $10,592 (62% win rate)
- 0x4c2d...f8ae — Outcome 10689287, $9,000 (42% win rate)
- 0xf192...6ee2 — Outcome 10689287, $7,681 (67% win rate)
- 0xbb1f...907d — Outcome 10689287, $7,184 (100% win rate)
- 0x7c47...882a — Outcome 10689287, $7,012 (28% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 10689287, $5,570 (72% win rate)
- 0x21ca...d7ce — Outcome 65500435, $4,022
- 0xe85c...ed6b — Outcome 10689287, $4,010
