Part of: US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

This Polymarket tracks whether the U.S. officially announces a new Iran peace agreement, ceasefire framework, diplomatic agreement, or extension of a halt in direct military engagement with Iran by the market’s deadline. PolySpotter is tracking live prediction market odds and $1,973 in smart money activity, including recent sharp cross-market Iran-related signals. The market resolves based on an official qualifying U.S. announcement, with the listed resolution timestamp shown as June 30, 2026 UTC.

45 smart money signals detected, totaling $127,193.

Categories: Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Peace Deal

Notable Trades

Elite cross-market Iran bettor

Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
  • This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.

$1,973 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
  • This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.

$1,799 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
  • This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.

$2,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable cross-market contrarian

Sharp profitable wallet is taking a contrarian No position while also showing broad cross-market positioning across this Iran event.

  • This bettor has won 75% of 397 resolved bets and is up about $242K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 10 related markets in this event, totaling about $269K in exposure.
  • This trade buys No around 15¢ against an 86% Yes market, implying a high-upside contrarian view.

$2,867 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

7-wallet cross-market cluster

High-scoring coordinated/cross-market Iran ceasefire bet from a profitable wallet cluster buying Yes into strong recent momentum.

  • Seven wallets funded by the same source are positioned on this theme, with $96K spread across 7 related markets.
  • The cluster’s related bets have an 82% hit rate, suggesting a strong read on this event.
  • They bought Yes at 87¢ as the market has already moved up 22.5 points this week.

$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

Elite cross-market Iran bettor

Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
  • This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.

$1,743 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Sharp cross-market Iran bettor

Sharp profitable cross-market trader bought No on an Iran ceasefire-extension market while carrying a strong 81% long-term win record and major related-event positioning.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $590K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.8M deployed across 158 related markets.
  • This is part of a larger same-event thesis: 10 markets and about $261K in exposure.

$1,372 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

81% winner re-enters Yes

Sharp 81% lifetime winner is re-entering Yes while building a broader cross-market Iran ceasefire thesis.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $64K lifetime across 270 markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.38M deployed across 80 related markets.
  • This is part of a broader $16.2K position across 3 markets as Yes has rallied 24.5% in the past day.

$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Elite cross-market Iran bettor

Elite 82% winner with $742k lifetime profit is re-entering Yes as part of a large cross-market Iran thesis.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 938 resolved trades and is up $742k lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $1.66M deployed across 29 events.
  • This is part of a broader 7-market Iran-related position totaling $97k.

$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

14-market Iran thesis

A profitable wallet is re-entering Yes as part of a large 14-market Iran-related thesis, with market momentum strongly confirming the direction.

  • This wallet has put $297k across 14 related markets, so this Yes buy looks like part of a broader thesis rather than a one-off trade.
  • The market has moved 19 points toward Yes in the last day, and this bettor is still buying at 76¢.
  • The wallet is modestly profitable overall, up about $70k across 581 resolved bets.

$1,647 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 10689287, $179,407 (82% win rate)
  2. 0xff72...cdaa Outcome 10689287, $13,760 (65% win rate)
  3. 0x6d9f...9790 Outcome 10689287, $10,592 (62% win rate)
  4. 0x4c2d...f8ae Outcome 10689287, $9,000 (42% win rate)
  5. 0xf192...6ee2 Outcome 10689287, $7,681 (67% win rate)
  6. 0xbb1f...907d Outcome 10689287, $7,184 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x7c47...882a Outcome 10689287, $7,012 (28% win rate)
  8. 0xbd04...fbb0 Outcome 10689287, $5,570 (72% win rate)
  9. 0x21ca...d7ce Outcome 65500435, $4,022
  10. 0xe85c...ed6b Outcome 10689287, $4,010

Related Theses

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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

12dUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?$127,193 tracked45 signalsPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranU.S. x IranPeace Deal

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt of direct military engagement with Iran or announces a new peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the U.S. government that the U.S. has either: 1. Extended its commitment to the ceasefire, either as a dated/time-based extension (e.g. a 60 day extension) or through an explicit statement that the ceasefire has been extended. 2. Renewed the existing ceasefire as part of a broader peace agreement, ceasefire framework, or diplomatic agreement under which the ceasefire will continue. Statements which merely acknowledge, reaffirm, or describe the current ceasefire as remaining in effect, or which outline further negotiations or de-escalation measures, without announcing a new extension period, or successor agreement under which the ceasefire will continue, will not qualify. The following would qualify: - President Trump announcing that “the ceasefire has been extended for another 60 days.” - An official U.S. statement announcing that “the United States and Iran have agreed to extend the ceasefire framework while negotiations continue.” - President Trump’s April 21, 2026 announcement extending the ceasefire “until the Iranian negotiators could reach a unified proposal.” - An announcement that the US and Iran have agreed to a new temporary framework under which the ceasefire would continue as Iran gradually reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the United States begins to unfreeze Iranian assets would qualify. The following would not qualify: - Statements that the ceasefire merely “remains in effect” or “continues to hold,” without announcing a new extension, renewal, or successor agreement. - Statements that “the ceasefire will remain in effect while negotiations continue,” without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, or a new framework or deal has been reached - Statements that negotiations are progressing, that talks are ongoing, or that the parties are “getting closer” to a deal, without announcing that the ceasefire itself has been extended, renewed, or continued under a new agreement. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a qualifying extension or successor agreement has been definitively established will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the U.S. government and will not require confirmation from Iran.

Notable Trades

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

2d ago

$1,973 on Yes at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

2d ago

$1,799 on No at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

2d ago

$2,720 on No at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

3d ago

$2,867 on No at 15¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

3d ago

$2,610 on Yes at 87¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

3d ago

$1,743 on Yes at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$1,372 on No at 23¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$1,700 on Yes at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$2,753 on Yes at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$1,647 on Yes at 76¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$4,367 on Yes at 81¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$3,650 on Yes at 83¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

4d ago

$1,500 on Yes at 84¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$1,526 on No at 19¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$1,167 on Yes at 85¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$1,670 on No at 21¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$8,999 on Yes at 85¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$4,100 on Yes at 82¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$4,235 on Yes at 69¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$1,415 on Yes at 58¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

5d ago

$4,342 on No at 44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$4,546 on No at 41¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$2,546 on No at 45¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$1,575 on No at 43¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$2,359 on No at 44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$1,555 on No at 42¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$5,859 on No at 40¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$2,400 on No at 40¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$3,120 on No at 39¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$1,480 on No at 37¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$2,967 on Yes at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

6d ago

$2,202 on Yes at 64¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

7d ago

$7,808 on Yes at 65¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

7d ago

$1,321 on No at 36¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

7d ago

$1,786 on No at 36¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

7d ago

$1,519 on Yes at 68¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

7d ago

$4,024 on Yes at 70¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

8d ago

$1,136 on No at 38¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

9d ago

$2,609 on No at 38¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

9d ago

$1,072 on No at 33¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

9d ago

$2,008 on No at 44¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

9d ago

$1,712 on No at 43¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

10d ago

$1,680 on Yes at 58¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

10d ago

$6,822 on No at 38¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

11d ago

$4,932 on Yes at 66¢

Related Theses