What does the Fed rate hike by September 2026 market predict?

It predicts whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will be increased at any point from December 16, 2025 through the completion of the listed September 2026 FOMC meeting.

When does this Fed rate prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026, subject to the exchange’s resolution rules and any qualifying rate hike announced by the deadline.

What would make the market resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of its target federal funds rate during the covered period, including a hike announced as a result of the listed FOMC meeting.

What would make the market resolve No?

It resolves No if no qualifying rate hike is announced during the covered period or under the market’s stated resolution conditions.

Where can I track smart-money activity for this Fed market?

PolySpotter tracks notable activity, including a profitable macro trader buying No, a three-wallet No conviction cluster, and a coordinated Yes shift across four wallets.

Part of: Fed rate hike by...?

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

This Polymarket prediction market asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target rate will be increased by the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The supplied metadata does not include a live Yes/No price; the market resolves based on an announced rate hike between December 16, 2025 and the meeting’s completion, with final resolution scheduled for December 9, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

13 smart money signals detected, totaling $143,836.

Categories: fomc, Inflation, Fed, Jerome Powell, Finance, Fed Rates, Economy, CPI Release

Notable Trades

Three-wallet No conviction cluster

Three wallets deployed $12.4K toward No, including a new wallet scaling into an established No position as the market fell 21% over the week.

Three wallets put $12,443 behind No, with the market already falling from roughly 73% to 52% No over the past week.
A 12-hour-old wallet bought $5,551 of No and already holds $11,234, signaling substantial fresh conviction despite having no resolved track record.
Two other participants have extensive histories—1,319 and 1,122 resolved trades—though their high average winning prices make them useful confirmation rather than proven outsized-edge bettors.

$12,443 on No

Serial 86% winner scaling into Yes

A highly active 86% winner is adding to an existing Yes position, with broader cross-market activity and a linked wallet supporting the trade.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,332 resolved trades and is adding $1,276 to an existing Yes position.
The wallet has traded across 157 events and 244 markets, suggesting substantial experience rather than a one-off wager.
Yes has risen 11% over the past day while this trader continues buying near 54¢.

$1,195 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$1,137 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Four-wallet coordinated Yes shift

Four wallets deployed $12.2K toward Yes, including two converting existing No positions, alongside repeat cross-market activity and a 28% weekly price rise.

Four wallets put $12,189 behind Yes, equivalent to roughly 26% of the market's 24-hour volume.
Two traders are unwinding existing No positions while other wallets add Yes, signaling a coordinated directional shift.
The activity follows repeat cross-market traders with 72% and 74% win rates, while Yes has risen 28% over the past week.

$12,189 on Yes

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$3,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Serial 86% winner scaling into Yes

A highly active 86% winner is adding to an existing Yes position, with broader cross-market activity and a linked wallet supporting the trade.

This bettor has won 86% of 1,332 resolved trades and is adding $1,276 to an existing Yes position.
The wallet has traded across 157 events and 244 markets, suggesting substantial experience rather than a one-off wager.
Yes has risen 11% over the past day while this trader continues buying near 54¢.

$1,276 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$4,757 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro serial trader

High-conviction No bet from a profitable serial cross-market trader with $486k lifetime profit and large size relative to this market’s daily volume.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k lifetime.
They put $44k on No, equal to about 95% of this market’s 24h volume.
This wallet frequently trades related markets, with activity across 54 events and nearly $4M in tracked cross-market volume.

$5,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$6,326 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Profitable macro cross-market bettor

Profitable, high-volume wallet with a 69% resolved win rate is taking a cross-market macro view against a Fed hike by the September 2026 meeting.

This bettor has won 69% of 81 resolved trades and is up $486k overall.
They have put about $36.9k across two related Fed-rate markets, suggesting a broader macro thesis.
Buying No at 65¢ means they are betting the market is still underpricing no rate hike by then.

$2,210 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%