US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $249,091.
Notable Trades
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A bettor with a 92% win rate is taking a cross-market geopolitical view by selling No at 69¢ here, making this a credible directional signal worth surfacing.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up nearly $30k across 25 settled bets
- They bet $146.5k across 3 related markets in the same event, showing a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off punt
- Selling No at 69¢ is effectively a Yes bet around 31¢, close to the current ask and implying meaningful upside if ceasefire odds rise
$7,719 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A bettor with a 92% win rate is building a consistent cross-market thesis on the same geopolitical event, and this trade effectively buys Yes at 31¢ in a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades with $29.8k profit on $460k invested
- They have bet across 3 related markets in the same event, suggesting a deliberate thesis rather than a one-off trade
- Selling No at 69¢ is the same as buying Yes at 31¢, close to the current 30-31¢ market price
$6,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A proven 75% win-rate trader with activity across 46 events is building a broad geopolitical thesis here, but this specific fill is now meaningfully worse than their 70¢ entry so it is more of a follow/study signal than an immediate chase.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades with $118k profit across 241 settled markets
- They have bet 7 related markets in the same event and 63 markets across 46 events, which suggests a researched macro view rather than a one-off punt
- They bought No at 70¢, but the market is now 58¢, so the move is worth tracking more than copying at current prices
$3,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Four wallets put $34.5k into Yes around 36-69¢ in a geopolitical market and the market has since moved to 42¢, making this coordinated, profitable one-sided flow worth watching despite mixed wallet quality.
- Four wallets put $34.5k behind the same Yes view, which is a strong coordinated directional bet.
- Most entries were made at 62-69¢ on No, equivalent to buying Yes at 31-38¢, and the market is now 42¢.
- One wallet is only 16 days old and already making repeat $3k+ bets, adding fresh-conviction signal to the cluster.
$34,537 on Yes
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A small but notable geopolitical trader with an early strong hit rate is selling No across multiple related Iran/US markets, and this trade has already moved well in their favor.
- This wallet has won 8 of 9 resolved bets and is betting across 5 related US-Iran markets
- bullets arent correct?
- They sold No at 67¢ and the market is now 58¢, so the position is already up on the move
$4,629 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Three active event traders all piled into NO on the same geopolitical market within minutes, adding coordinated directional flow even though their standalone win-rate profiles are only modest.
- Three wallets bought nearly $13.9k of NO within 5 minutes at 64-65¢, showing coordinated conviction on the same side.
- One wallet has traded 6 related Iran-event markets for $172k, suggesting a broader event thesis rather than a random one-off bet.
- This is a liquid news-driven market, so multiple bettors paying above the current 58¢ price likely reflects urgency more than passive market making.
$13,900 on No
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A very new wallet has repeatedly placed large bets and is building a multi-market geopolitical thesis, making this fresh $18k buy on Yes worth tracking despite no resolved history yet.
- A 7-day-old wallet has already triggered 19 large-bet alerts and put $220,993 into flagged trades
- This wallet is betting across 3 related Iran event markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt
- The trader bought Yes around 34¢-45¢, and one fill is already better than market with Yes now at 42¢
$18,067 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A high-volume wallet with a strong 73% win rate is expressing a cross-market geopolitical thesis here by effectively buying Yes around 33%, and the trade is already marked in their favor.
- This bettor has won 617 of 848 resolved trades and is up about $90k lifetime
- They sold No at 67¢, which is the same as buying Yes around 33¢ on a geopolitical market
- The price has already moved their way from 33¢ implied Yes to about 42¢ now
$6,157 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with 730 resolved bets and $822k in profit bought No, making this a credible signal despite only a moderate composite score.
- This bettor has won 68% of 730 resolved bets and is up about $823k lifetime
- They trade across 75 markets in 50 events, suggesting a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 69¢ in a liquid news-driven geopolitical market, a clear directional view worth tracking
$3,713 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
A brand-new repeat wallet funded alongside another wallet is making a sizable fresh bearish bet on a major geopolitics market, suggesting coordinated conviction worth monitoring despite no proven track record yet.
- This wallet is under 2 days old and has already made 4 flagged bets totaling $18.1k
- Two wallets funded by the same address have put $6.8k behind the same thesis
- The trader sold Yes at 35¢, effectively backing No in a major geopolitics market
$3,110 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — No, $271,869 (72% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $116,921 (88% win rate)
- 0xfd66...fb6d — Yes, $110,000 (18% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $70,589 (56% win rate)
- 0xef02...5ebd — No, $70,376
- 0xa4eb...d010 — Yes, $70,335 (100% win rate)
- 0x49b3...6486 — No, $70,237
- 0x5188...c804 — Yes, $61,330 (82% win rate)
- 0x44de...9c08 — Yes, $60,879
- 0xc0a1...a33b — No, $51,673