Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,177.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate added $1,287 to an existing No position as No moved sharply higher, though the historical record is not clearly edge-adjusted.
- This bettor has won 82% of 2,684 resolved bets across 141 markets and 58 events.
- The $1,287 purchase was more than 14 times the detected 24-hour volume and helped accompany a sharp move toward No.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position at 75¢, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 14.
$1,710 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Serial trader scaling into No
A serial cross-market trader with an 82% win rate added $1,287 to an existing No position as No moved sharply higher, though the historical record is not clearly edge-adjusted.
- This bettor has won 82% of 2,684 resolved bets across 141 markets and 58 events.
- The $1,287 purchase was more than 14 times the detected 24-hour volume and helped accompany a sharp move toward No.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position at 75¢, signaling increased conviction that the blockade will not end by August 14.
$1,287 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
Sharp bettor makes oversized Yes bet
A highly profitable sharp bettor made a fresh, oversized Yes purchase in an extremely thin market, with multiple corroborating signals.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,461 resolved positions and is up $763,383 lifetime.
- The $1,180 Yes purchase was over 13 times the market’s entire 24-hour volume, despite a wide spread and modest liquidity.
- The wallet has traded across 51 events and 61 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market process rather than a one-off bet.
$1,180 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Top Holders
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Outcome 39796296, $34,153 (88% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 39796296, $32,722 (56% win rate)
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 39796296, $8,085 (69% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — Outcome 39796296, $5,671 (63% win rate)
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 39796296, $5,181 (16% win rate)
- 0x6ffa...b3c4 — Outcome 39796296, $4,806
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 39796296, $4,747 (52% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 39796296, $4,000 (71% win rate)
- 0x9352...2227 — Outcome 39796296, $3,907 (64% win rate)
- 0xa0bc...d428 — Outcome 39796296, $2,500
Related Theses
Iranian blockade persists past September
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Someone else wins Peru presidency
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Lula wins, Flávio loses
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Musk will tweet 200-219 times
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Musk will post 260–279 tweets
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Musk won’t post 180-199 tweets
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