Part of: Presidential Election Winner 2028
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
This prediction market asks whether JD Vance will win the 2028 US Presidential Election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. The market resolves to the candidate called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or to the candidate inaugurated on January 20, 2029; the supplied data shows $26,333 in tracked smart money and recent YES and NO activity.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $1,432,767.
Categories: President, United States, US Election, Elections, Politics, World Elections, Global Elections, Earn 4%, Main Election
Notable Trades
Four-wallet coordinated Yes flow
A synchronized $107K in No sells is equivalent to Yes buying and coincides with a 127.6x volume spike, though some activity may be profit-taking and there is opposing No buying.
- Four wallets sold about $107K of No, equivalent to buying Yes, in a market seeing a 127.6x volume spike.
- The largest trade was $73.9K, but some wallets had prior No positions, so the flow may partly reflect profit-taking.
- There is opposing No buying from three wallets, making this a notable but contested signal.
$250,380 on Yes
Three-wallet No flow amid volume spike
A sharp volume surge and three-wallet flow toward No make this worth surfacing, despite the lead wallet's win rate not clearly exceeding its average entry odds.
- Three wallets bought No for a combined $31,522, showing a notable shared view.
- Trading activity was 127.6 times its historical average, while this wallet entered No at 80¢.
- The wallet is up $241,857 overall, though its 67% win rate does not clearly beat its 75¢ average winning price.
$1,598 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%
Proven 76% winner, two-sided sells
A highly profitable, 976-position bettor made $56k of two-sided sells during a volume spike, though the trades do not reveal a clear directional thesis.
- This bettor has won 76% of 976 resolved positions and is up $619,539.
- The two sells total $56,170—about 6× the market’s reported 24-hour volume—but point in opposite directions.
- The larger sell was No, equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢; the market price has barely moved.
$56,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Whale adding to a large No position
The wallet added $61.7K to an existing No position, a sizable commitment against only $1,499 in 24-hour volume, though its track record is too small to establish an edge.
- The bettor added $61,723 to an existing No position already worth over $77,000.
- The two buys were about 35 times the market’s $1,499 in 24-hour volume, though the wallet has only one resolved bet in its history.
$61,723 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Perfect-record bettor sells Yes
A proven bettor with a 100% record and $1.27M profit made a sizable bearish move, though it reduces an existing Yes position rather than opening a fresh trade.
- This bettor has won 25 of 25 resolved positions and is up $1.27 million lifetime.
- The $26,333 sale represents nearly 180% of the market's 24-hour volume.
- The trade reduces an existing Yes position, so it is meaningful bearish positioning but not a wholly new bet.
$26,333 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
20-hour wallet backs YES
Brand-new wallet made a net-long Yes bet with $10k at 16¢, quickly moving to 20¢, though it has no resolved track record yet.
- A wallet less than 1 day old put $10k on Yes at 16¢.
- The Yes price has already moved to 20¢, giving the trade quick early momentum.
- They also bought $2.5k of No, but the net position is strongly pro-Yes.
$12,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
5-wallet pro-Vance cluster
Five linked wallets from a recurring funded cluster are building the same pro-Vance position, and this wallet has an 81% resolved win rate, though the market is very liquid and long-dated.
- Five linked wallets funded by the same source have put about $5.5K behind the same side.
- This bettor has won 81% of 21 resolved markets and is slightly profitable lifetime.
- Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢ on a long-shot 2028 election position.
$1,320 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
5-wallet funded cluster
A huge bullish Vance position from a wallet in a recurring 5-wallet funded cluster is worth surfacing despite the market being fairly liquid.
- This wallet is part of a 5-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, with $536K behind this side.
- The trade is a large bullish bet at 19¢, implying a roughly 5x payout if JD Vance wins.
- The bettor has won 81% of 21 resolved trades and is slightly profitable lifetime.
$536,346 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
85% win-rate political whale
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 85% win rate and positive lifetime P&L is effectively buying JD Vance Yes with a $31k position.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades across 1,091 bets and is up $28.6k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 84 events and $3.8M in tracked volume.
- The $31.3k trade is over 2x this market’s 24h volume, showing meaningful conviction at 19¢.
$31,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
5-wallet funded whale buying NO
High-conviction funded-cluster whale bet: a new wallet put $395.5K on JD Vance not winning 2028, backed by a 5-wallet shared-funder pattern.
- A new whale bought $395.5K of No, larger than the market’s listed liquidity.
- Five wallets share the same funder, suggesting one well-funded actor is building this direction.
- Entry at 79¢ implies they think Vance’s real 2028 win odds are below the market’s 21%.
$395,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,808,408
- 0xa8a9...bb81 — Yes, $582,055
- 0x2e4d...f703 — Yes, $442,414 (83% win rate)
- 0xc772...45f5 — Yes, $253,757
- 0x312e...8604 — Yes, $250,614 (0% win rate)
- 0xb5d1...6e35 — No, $182,589 (40% win rate)
- 0x7ea7...79ac — Yes, $161,070 (73% win rate)
- 0x0c26...d223 — Yes, $150,000
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $102,809 (48% win rate)
- 0xe154...0b7f — Yes, $100,000 (10% win rate)
Related Theses
Vance beats Newsom in 2028
Covers 2 related markets
SpaceX IPO between $1.8T and $2T
Covers 5 related markets
Flávio beats Lula in 2026
Covers 2 related markets
Israel picks a different prime minister
Covers 3 related markets
Brazil election won’t be close
Covers 4 related markets
Ballon d’Or goes elsewhere
Covers 3 related markets
