Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,050.

Categories: Middle East, Iran, World, Trump, Israel, Politics, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 76% win rate is extending a broad event thesis by buying No at 86¢ in this conflict market.

  • This bettor has won 657 of 860 resolved trades and has bet across 123 events.
  • They put $139k across 8 related markets in this same event, showing a clear multi-market thesis.
  • Bought No at 86¢, implying they see a high chance the conflict will not end by this deadline.

$3,050 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Top Holders

  1. 0x7d43...6d78 No, $349,463
  2. 0x1cc1...b8df Yes, $307,980 (55% win rate)
  3. 0xbaa2...2c73 Yes, $274,495 (66% win rate)
  4. 0x6ea6...9261 No, $225,251 (93% win rate)
  5. 0xec1f...d325 Yes, $181,925 (20% win rate)
  6. 0xa3e9...1279 No, $166,470
  7. 0x162f...798d Yes, $123,277 (69% win rate)
  8. 0x3e5b...073b No, $118,536 (92% win rate)
  9. 0x1d16...e798 Yes, $78,494
  10. 0xbacd...ab35 Yes, $77,202 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Resolved$3,050 tracked1 signalMiddle EastIranWorldTrumpIsraelPoliticsGeopoliticsIran CeasefireIsrael x Iran
Yes
2¢
No
98¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Price History — “No
101¢
96¢
90¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

11d ago

$3,050 on No at 86¢

86¢98¢12¢

Related Theses

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | PolySpotter