Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,176.

Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Serial cross-market bettor adds to No

A proven but not exceptionally sharp wallet is adding to an existing No position in a thin market while expressing a consistent view across four related markets.

  • The wallet has placed bets across four related markets, with three detected in prior runs and a consistent directional view.
  • This $1,773 addition represents 148% of the market’s reported 24-hour volume, making it meaningful in a thin market.
  • The bettor already holds $2,860 of No at 62¢, so this is added conviction rather than a new position; its 66% win rate is solid but not clearly above its typical 72¢ winning entry price.

$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate made a concentrated No position in an exceptionally thin market, suggesting meaningful conviction.

  • This bettor wins 69% of 62 resolved trades and is up $76,385 lifetime.
  • The wallet committed $2,403 to No in a market with only $1,195 of 24-hour volume.
  • The position spans three markets in the same event, reflecting a broader directional thesis rather than an isolated bet.

$2,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdbd0...8c1c Outcome 31403455, $28,410 (16% win rate)
  2. 0x1685...cb4e Outcome 31403455, $22,288
  3. 0x7447...a16d Outcome 31403455, $20,000 (52% win rate)
  4. 0x1cc1...b8df Outcome 31403455, $20,000 (56% win rate)
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 31403455, $15,433
  6. 0xe234...304a Outcome 31403455, $7,275 (66% win rate)
  7. 0x162f...798d Outcome 31403455, $5,001 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x38f5...6824 Outcome 31403455, $3,961 (47% win rate)
  9. 0x71ab...f015 Outcome 31403455, $3,790 (63% win rate)
  10. 0x6404...f250 Outcome 31403455, $2,500 (68% win rate)

Related Theses

Ceasefire comes in early August

Covers 3 related markets

Iranian blockade ends after August

Covers 4 related markets

Iran-Oman won’t reach agreement

Covers 1 related market

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 5 related markets

No Mythos-Class Model by August 2026

Covers 1 related market

Anthropic won’t IPO by October 31

Covers 1 related market

Brief ceasefire collapses before August

Covers 3 related markets

Scott Jennings won’t become press secretary

Covers 1 related market

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through August

Covers 2 related markets

Iranian blockade will persist past August 15

Covers 5 related markets

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

ResolvedUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?$4,176 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
69¢
57¢
46¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

15d ago

$1,773 on No at 62¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?

15d ago

$2,403 on No at 54¢

Related Theses