Part of: US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,176.
Categories: Iran, Trump, Blockade, Politics, shipping, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market bettor adds to No
A proven but not exceptionally sharp wallet is adding to an existing No position in a thin market while expressing a consistent view across four related markets.
- The wallet has placed bets across four related markets, with three detected in prior runs and a consistent directional view.
- This $1,773 addition represents 148% of the market’s reported 24-hour volume, making it meaningful in a thin market.
- The bettor already holds $2,860 of No at 62¢, so this is added conviction rather than a new position; its 66% win rate is solid but not clearly above its typical 72¢ winning entry price.
$1,773 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Profitable serial trader buys No
A profitable serial cross-market trader with a 69% win rate made a concentrated No position in an exceptionally thin market, suggesting meaningful conviction.
- This bettor wins 69% of 62 resolved trades and is up $76,385 lifetime.
- The wallet committed $2,403 to No in a market with only $1,195 of 24-hour volume.
- The position spans three markets in the same event, reflecting a broader directional thesis rather than an isolated bet.
$2,403 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xdbd0...8c1c — Outcome 31403455, $28,410 (16% win rate)
- 0x1685...cb4e — Outcome 31403455, $22,288
- 0x7447...a16d — Outcome 31403455, $20,000 (52% win rate)
- 0x1cc1...b8df — Outcome 31403455, $20,000 (56% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 31403455, $15,433
- 0xe234...304a — Outcome 31403455, $7,275 (66% win rate)
- 0x162f...798d — Outcome 31403455, $5,001 (67% win rate)
- 0x38f5...6824 — Outcome 31403455, $3,961 (47% win rate)
- 0x71ab...f015 — Outcome 31403455, $3,790 (63% win rate)
- 0x6404...f250 — Outcome 31403455, $2,500 (68% win rate)
Related Theses
Ceasefire comes in early August
Covers 3 related markets
Iranian blockade ends after August
Covers 4 related markets
Iran-Oman won’t reach agreement
Covers 1 related market
Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold
Covers 5 related markets
No Mythos-Class Model by August 2026
Covers 1 related market
Anthropic won’t IPO by October 31
Covers 1 related market
Brief ceasefire collapses before August
Covers 3 related markets
Scott Jennings won’t become press secretary
Covers 1 related market
Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds Through August
Covers 2 related markets
Iranian blockade will persist past August 15
Covers 5 related markets
