Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,860.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Sharp 80% winner buying No
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with an 80% win rate is adding a No position as part of a cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They have put $3.7K across two related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-conviction bet that the 80-ship threshold will not be hit.
$1,047 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
98% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 98% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No at 88¢, despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor has won 46 of 47 resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They are taking the low-risk No side at 88¢ while also trading another related market.
- Entry at 88¢ suggests a high-conviction view that the 80-ship threshold will not be reached.
$1,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
93% winner in funded cluster
Surface this because a proven 93% win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying No, alongside a 15-wallet funded cluster signal.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades and is up $35,807 lifetime.
- 15 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction on this side.
- They bought No at 76¢ and the market has already moved to 80¢.
$1,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner in funded cluster
Surface this because a proven 93% win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying No, alongside a 15-wallet funded cluster signal.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades and is up $35,807 lifetime.
- 15 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction on this side.
- They bought No at 76¢ and the market has already moved to 80¢.
$1,032 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 176 markets with $3.4M total staked.
- Buying Yes at 24¢ follows a 15-point weekly move, suggesting they still see upside.
$1,352 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 176 markets with $3.4M total staked.
- Buying Yes at 24¢ follows a 15-point weekly move, suggesting they still see upside.
$1,206 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable high-win bettor
Despite a weak automated signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a long profitable record and made a $5.2k No bet representing about half of the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
- They put $5.2k on No, equal to about 51% of this market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 79¢ suggests they see limited chance of the ship-count threshold being hit.
$5,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $3k of No in a moderately thin logistics market, making the trade worth surfacing despite only modest signal strength.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,626 resolved bets, 64% winners, and $243k in lifetime profit.
- They bought $3.0k of No at 86¢, equal to about 40% of the market’s last-day volume.
- The trade pushes against recent Yes momentum, suggesting a deliberate view rather than simple trend-following.
$3,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 49177764, $21,519 (76% win rate)
- 0x3eae...5e6d — Outcome 49177764, $2,000
- 0x5e62...c577 — Outcome 49177764, $1,600
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 49177764, $1,287 (70% win rate)
- 0x061a...142b — Outcome 49177764, $1,000
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 49177764, $1,000 (49% win rate)
- 0x2eae...a25f — Outcome 49177764, $900 (70% win rate)
- 0xb003...97e1 — Outcome 49177764, $634
- 0x2aac...dfad — Outcome 49177764, $599
- 0xc7d0...1f8a — Outcome 49177764, $576
Related Theses
WTI stays between $90 and $105
Covers 5 related markets
Iran closes airspace mid-May
Covers 8 related markets
Iranian blockade persists through August
Covers 7 related markets
Iran peace deal won’t happen
Covers 12 related markets
Iran deal by mid-June
Covers 13 related markets
