Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $15,860.
Categories: Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Notable Trades
Sharp 80% winner buying No
Surfaced because a proven profitable wallet with an 80% win rate is adding a No position as part of a cross-market thesis.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They have put $3.7K across two related markets, suggesting a broader view on this event.
- Entry at 88¢ is a high-conviction bet that the 80-ship threshold will not be hit.
$1,047 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
98% winner buying NO
Sharp-wallet override: a bettor with a 98% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No at 88¢, despite only a modest cross-market signal.
- This bettor has won 46 of 47 resolved trades and is up $48.6K lifetime.
- They are taking the low-risk No side at 88¢ while also trading another related market.
- Entry at 88¢ suggests a high-conviction view that the 80-ship threshold will not be reached.
$1,985 on No | Wallet win rate: 98%
93% winner in funded cluster
Surface this because a proven 93% win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying No, alongside a 15-wallet funded cluster signal.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades and is up $35,807 lifetime.
- 15 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction on this side.
- They bought No at 76¢ and the market has already moved to 80¢.
$1,072 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
93% winner in funded cluster
Surface this because a proven 93% win-rate wallet with positive lifetime P&L is buying No, alongside a 15-wallet funded cluster signal.
- This bettor has won 93% of resolved trades and is up $35,807 lifetime.
- 15 wallets share the same funder, suggesting coordinated conviction on this side.
- They bought No at 76¢ and the market has already moved to 80¢.
$1,032 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 176 markets with $3.4M total staked.
- Buying Yes at 24¢ follows a 15-point weekly move, suggesting they still see upside.
$1,352 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
82% winner cross-market buyer
Sharp high-volume trader with an 82% resolved win rate and $775k profit is buying Yes while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up about $775k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 176 markets with $3.4M total staked.
- Buying Yes at 24¢ follows a 15-point weekly move, suggesting they still see upside.
$1,206 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable high-win bettor
Despite a weak automated signal, this is worth surfacing because the buyer has a long profitable record and made a $5.2k No bet representing about half of the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $19.8k lifetime.
- They put $5.2k on No, equal to about 51% of this market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 79¢ suggests they see limited chance of the ship-count threshold being hit.
$5,155 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader bought $3k of No in a moderately thin logistics market, making the trade worth surfacing despite only modest signal strength.
- This bettor has a long track record: 1,626 resolved bets, 64% winners, and $243k in lifetime profit.
- They bought $3.0k of No at 86¢, equal to about 40% of the market’s last-day volume.
- The trade pushes against recent Yes momentum, suggesting a deliberate view rather than simple trend-following.
$3,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Yes, $21,519 (81% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $21,032 (47% win rate)
- 0xf5e8...9fbd — Yes, $20,536
- 0xdb45...b5d6 — Yes, $17,717 (38% win rate)
- 0x22e4...ef1c — No, $16,704 (58% win rate)
- 0xa576...8678 — No, $16,052
- 0xe738...df65 — Yes, $15,320 (64% win rate)
- 0xceca...3f67 — No, $13,838 (70% win rate)
- 0x68c2...1711 — Yes, $13,352 (55% win rate)
- 0x7447...a16d — No, $11,289 (56% win rate)
Related Theses
Iran peace deal won’t happen
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Iran deal by mid-June
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WTI stays between $90 and $105
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Iran closes airspace mid-May
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Hormuz blockade persists
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