What does this Strait of Hormuz prediction market measure?

It measures whether shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to the market’s defined normal level during 2026.

How is the market resolved?

The market uses IMF PortWatch’s daily 7-day moving average of “Arrivals of Ships.” The qualifying month is the calendar month containing the first data point at or above 60 transit calls.

Which ships count toward the Strait of Hormuz traffic total?

Container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships count. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch are excluded.

When does this market resolve?

The listed resolution date is December 31, 2026, subject to the market’s IMF PortWatch-based resolution rules.

What are smart money traders doing in this market?

PolySpotter currently shows a tracked smart money signal from a profitable serial trader buying No.

Part of: Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will fail to return to normal during 2026. It uses IMF PortWatch data and considers the first calendar month with a daily 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls; the market resolves by December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $14,425.

Categories: Oil, Iran, Politics, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly active, profitable serial trader made a fresh $7,212 No position that represented over half of the market’s 24-hour volume, despite only moderate evidence of pricing edge.

This wallet has won 71% of 1,196 resolved bets and is up about $1.1 million overall.
It bought $7,212 of No in two trades, accounting for 51% of the market’s 24-hour volume.
The trader closed a much larger Yes position before rotating into No, signaling a meaningful change in direction.

$7,213 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a concentrated $6,094 No bet in a relatively thin geopolitical market, though the historical win rate is not exceptional relative to entry prices.

This bettor is up $1.1 million across 1,196 resolved markets and trades across 49 events.
The $6,094 No position exceeded the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a relatively thin market.
The trade was placed at 58¢ while No was around 56%, implying the bettor sees worthwhile value despite the market’s long resolution horizon.

$1,118 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader made a concentrated $6,094 No bet in a relatively thin geopolitical market, though the historical win rate is not exceptional relative to entry prices.

This bettor is up $1.1 million across 1,196 resolved markets and trades across 49 events.
The $6,094 No position exceeded the market’s reported 24-hour volume, signaling meaningful conviction in a relatively thin market.
The trade was placed at 58¢ while No was around 56%, implying the bettor sees worthwhile value despite the market’s long resolution horizon.

$6,094 on No | Wallet win rate: 71%